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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Housing Starts fell to 1.47M in April 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Housing Starts fell to 1.47M in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.04M from March's 1.51M reading. The reading matched the 1.41M consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.38M. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts averaged 1.49M, vs 1.33M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 79th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.465
Actual
1.41
Consensus
1.507
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.87 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.27
Actual: 1.47
Error: +0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts (United States) was reported at 1.47 million in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.41 million by 0.06 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.51 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 764.38 million, ranging from 1.25 million to 1,507.00 million across 18 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 489.32 million, down from the prior three at 954.80 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 684.54 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 677.95 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Housing Starts has averaged 520.44 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.87 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun 15) and Building Permits MoM (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Housing Starts - US
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About Housing Starts — United States
DEFINITION
Housing Starts is a key economic indicator that measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun in a given period of time. This data is used to gauge the health of the housing market and overall economic growth, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. Housing Starts is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions and predictions about the future of the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1,465 Thousands. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1,507 Thousands. Before that (Feb 2026): 1,356 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.53) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.