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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Import Prices YoY climbed to 7.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Import Prices YoY climbed to 7.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.4% from May's 6.7% reading. The print exceeded the 6.2% consensus by 0.9%. Import Prices YoY has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Import Prices YoY averaged 5.45%, vs 0.83% in the prior 3-month window. Import Prices YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
7.1
Actual
6.2
Consensus
6.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 6.7
Actual: 7.1
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Import Prices YoY (United States) was reported at 7.1% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 6.2% by 0.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.94%, ranging from -0.2% to 7.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 6%, up from the prior three at 0.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.78%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.69%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Import Prices YoY has averaged 2.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Import Prices YoY - US
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About Import Prices YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Import Prices YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services imported into a country over a period of one year. This indicator is used to track the impact of international trade on a country's economy and can provide valuable insights into inflation and the strength of the domestic currency. It is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to assess the competitiveness of a country's imports and its overall economic health.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 7.1 %, consensus 6.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 6.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 4.6 | 4 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 200 | 187.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1796 | 1800 | 1782.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.5 | 210 | 203.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 37 | 36.50 | Low | |