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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Import Prices YoY climbed to 4.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Import Prices YoY climbed to 4.2% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 1.9% from March's 2.3% reading. The print exceeded the 2.9% consensus by 1.3%. Import Prices YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Import Prices YoY averaged 1.1%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. Import Prices YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
2.9
Consensus
2.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.34 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 4.2
Error: -1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Import Prices YoY (United States) was reported at 4.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.9% by 1.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.56%, ranging from -0.2% to 4.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, up from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.28%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.65%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Import Prices YoY has averaged 1.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.34%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Import Prices YoY - US
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About Import Prices YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Import Prices YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services imported into a country over a period of one year. This indicator is used to track the impact of international trade on a country's economy and can provide valuable insights into inflation and the strength of the domestic currency. It is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to assess the competitiveness of a country's imports and its overall economic health.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.2 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.71) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.