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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Import Prices YoY fell to 5.9% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Import Prices YoY fell to 5.9% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.2% from June's 7.1% reading. The reading missed the 7.2% consensus by 1.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.78%. Over the past 3 months, Import Prices YoY averaged 6.9%, vs 1.88% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.9
Actual
7.2
Consensus
7.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 7.6
Actual: 5.9
Error: +1.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Import Prices YoY (United States) was reported at 5.9% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7.2% by 1.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.55%, ranging from -0.1% to 7.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.57%, up from the prior three at 1.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.91%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.81%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Import Prices YoY has averaged 2.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Import Prices YoY - US
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About Import Prices YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Import Prices YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services imported into a country over a period of one year. This indicator is used to track the impact of international trade on a country's economy and can provide valuable insights into inflation and the strength of the domestic currency. It is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to assess the competitiveness of a country's imports and its overall economic health.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.9 %, consensus 7.2 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 7.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 6.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |