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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Industrial Production MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Industrial Production MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.8% from April's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.13%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.1%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.5
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.84 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (United States) was reported at 0.1% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.24%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.72%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Jul 17) and Building Permits (Jul 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - US
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About Industrial Production MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.84) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.40 | Low | |