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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Industrial Production MoM climbed to 0.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Industrial Production MoM climbed to 0.7% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 1.0% from March's -0.3% reading. The print exceeded the 0.3% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.05%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.13%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.38
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (United States) was reported at 0.7% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.21%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.53%, up from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.3%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.75%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - US
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About Industrial Production MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -0.5 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.