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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 209K in August 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased August 2026
US Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 209K in August 2026, up 9K from July's 200K reading. The reading matched expectations. Initial Jobless Claims has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Initial Jobless Claims averaged 211.67K, vs 207.77K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
209
Actual
202
Consensus
200
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±158.41 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 541.36
Actual: 209
Error: +332.36
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims (United States) was reported at 209 thousand in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 202 thousand by 7 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 200 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 122,735 thousand, ranging from 187 thousand to 259,000 thousand across 92 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 69,803 thousand, down from the prior three at 132,732 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 107,894 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 113,069 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Initial Jobless Claims has averaged 113,828 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 158 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug 17) and NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Initial Jobless Claims - US
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About Initial Jobless Claims — United States
DEFINITION
Initial Jobless Claims is a key economic indicator that measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. This data is released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor and is used to gauge the health of the job market and overall economy. A higher number of initial jobless claims may indicate a weakening job market, while a lower number may suggest a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 209,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 200,000 Thousands. Before that (Jul 2026): 198,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, August 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.05 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.05 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 6.8 | 6 | 5.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.25 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 50.6 | 55.4 | 55.2 | 52.90 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.25 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.8 | 54.8 | 55 | 53.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51 | 55.2 | 54.5 | 52.75 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.30 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.05 | Medium |
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 15.6 | 10.2 | 10.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 33 | 34.00 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | 19 | -4.7 | -4.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.427 | 1.35 | 1.35 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 10.2 | 9.6 | 9.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.6 | 1.2 | 1.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.37 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -5.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -0.3 | 1.4 | 3.25 | Medium | |