Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 199K in October 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased October 2026
US Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 199K in October 2026, up 1K from September's 198K reading. The reading matched expectations. Over the past 3 months, Initial Jobless Claims averaged 200K, vs 213.15K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
199
Actual
200
Consensus
198
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±302.15 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 498.94
Actual: 199
Error: +299.94
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims (United States) was reported at 199 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 200 thousand by 1 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 198 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 116,022 thousand, ranging from 187 thousand to 235,000 thousand across 95 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 66,465 thousand, down from the prior three at 132,399 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 105,628 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 113,002 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Initial Jobless Claims has averaged 121,917 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 302 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct 19) and Housing Starts (Oct 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Initial Jobless Claims - US
Loading chart data...
About Initial Jobless Claims — United States
DEFINITION
Initial Jobless Claims is a key economic indicator that measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. This data is released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor and is used to gauge the health of the job market and overall economy. A higher number of initial jobless claims may indicate a weakening job market, while a lower number may suggest a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 199,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 198,000 Thousands. Before that (Sep 2026): 199,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.95 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1 | 1.60 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 8.1 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 8.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 11.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 10.50 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1 | 1.60 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.9 | 76.4 | 76.5 | 76.70 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.95 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -167 | -29 | -28.00 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 279.2 | -27.9 | 75.2 | 177.20 | Medium |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 31 | 31.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.275 | 1.3 | 1.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.6 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.4 | 1.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -4.7 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.3 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |