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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K in September 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased September 2026
US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 206K in September 2026, down 1K from August's 207K reading. The reading matched expectations. Over the past 3 months, Initial Jobless Claims averaged 207.17K, vs 210.38K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 32nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
206
Actual
205
Consensus
207
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±179.91 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 503.84
Actual: 206
Error: +297.84
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims (United States) was reported at 206 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 205 thousand by 1 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 207 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 120,094 thousand, ranging from 187 thousand to 235,000 thousand across 91 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 68,804 thousand, down from the prior three at 137,068 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 106,474 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 113,510 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Initial Jobless Claims has averaged 107,435 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 180 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Initial Jobless Claims - US
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About Initial Jobless Claims — United States
DEFINITION
Initial Jobless Claims is a key economic indicator that measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. This data is released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor and is used to gauge the health of the job market and overall economy. A higher number of initial jobless claims may indicate a weakening job market, while a lower number may suggest a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 206,000 Thousands. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 207,000 Thousands. Before that (Aug 2026): 204,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |