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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 229K in June 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased June 2026
US Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 229K in June 2026, up 4K from May's 225K reading. The reading matched expectations. Initial Jobless Claims has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Initial Jobless Claims averaged 208.83K, vs 212.83K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
229
Actual
219
Consensus
225
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±162.37 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 194.03
Actual: 229
Error: -34.97
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Initial Jobless Claims (United States) was reported at 229 thousand in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 219 thousand by 10 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 225 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 124,596 thousand, ranging from 191 thousand to 259,000 thousand across 90 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 76,485 thousand, down from the prior three at 145,738 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 109,139 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 113,922 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Initial Jobless Claims has averaged 114,285 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 162 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Initial Jobless Claims - US
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About Initial Jobless Claims — United States
DEFINITION
Initial Jobless Claims is a key economic indicator that measures the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. This data is released weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor and is used to gauge the health of the job market and overall economy. A higher number of initial jobless claims may indicate a weakening job market, while a lower number may suggest a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it provides valuable insights into the current state of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 229,000 Thousands. Prior reading (May 2026): 225,000 Thousands. Before that (May 2026): 212,000 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.