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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Services Business Activity fell to 56.5 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US ISM Services Business Activity fell to 56.5 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 5.2 from August's 61.7 reading. The reading missed the 61.5 consensus by 5. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 6.6. Over the past 3 months, ISM Services Business Activity averaged 60.4, vs 56.8 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
56.5
Actual
61.5
Consensus
61.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.86
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 62.95
Actual: 56.5
Error: +6.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Services Business Activity (United States) was reported at 56.50 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 61.50 by 5.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 61.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 57.46, ranging from 54.30 to 61.70 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 59.10, up from the prior three at 58.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.32) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.48). In October readings over the past 3 years, ISM Services Business Activity has averaged 55.43.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.86.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ISM Services Business Activity - US
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About ISM Services Business Activity — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Services Business Activity is a key financial indicator that measures the level of business activity in the services sector of the economy. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives, and provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the services industry. This indicator is widely used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to assess the current and future state of the services sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the economy. A higher reading indicates increased business activity, while a lower reading may signal a slowdown in the services industry. Overall, the ISM Services Business Activity is a reliable and important tool for understanding the performance of the services sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 56.5, consensus 61.5. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 61.7. Before that (Jul 2026): 59.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |