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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Services Business Activity climbed to 57.7 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US ISM Services Business Activity climbed to 57.7 in May 2026, released June 2026, up 1.8 from April's 55.9 reading. The reading matched the 55 consensus. ISM Services Business Activity has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, ISM Services Business Activity averaged 54.9, vs 57.77 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
57.7
Actual
55
Consensus
55.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.88
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 55
Actual: 57.7
Error: -2.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Services Business Activity (United States) was reported at 57.70 in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 55.00 by 2.70. The reading rose from the previous value of 55.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 55.26, ranging from 49.90 to 59.90 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 58.33, up from the prior three at 54.93. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.79) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.56). In June readings over the past 3 years, ISM Services Business Activity has averaged 56.30.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.88.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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ISM Services Business Activity - US
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About ISM Services Business Activity — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Services Business Activity is a key financial indicator that measures the level of business activity in the services sector of the economy. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives, and provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the services industry. This indicator is widely used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to assess the current and future state of the services sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the economy. A higher reading indicates increased business activity, while a lower reading may signal a slowdown in the services industry. Overall, the ISM Services Business Activity is a reliable and important tool for understanding the performance of the services sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 57.7, consensus 55. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 55.9. Before that (Mar 2026): 53.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.49) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |