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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Services Business Activity climbed to 61.7 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ISM Services Business Activity climbed to 61.7 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 2.6 from July's 59.1 reading. The reading matched the 59 consensus. ISM Services Business Activity has now risen for 5 consecutive months. ISM Services Business Activity is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
61.7
Actual
59
Consensus
59.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.86
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 60.55
Actual: 61.7
Error: -1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Services Business Activity (United States) was reported at 61.70 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 59.00 by 2.70. The reading rose from the previous value of 59.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 56.72, ranging from 49.90 to 61.70 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 59.50, up from the prior three at 57.77. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.33) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.61). In September readings over the past 3 years, ISM Services Business Activity has averaged 56.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.86.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ISM Services Business Activity - US
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About ISM Services Business Activity — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Services Business Activity is a key financial indicator that measures the level of business activity in the services sector of the economy. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing and supply executives, and provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the services industry. This indicator is widely used by investors, analysts, and policymakers to assess the current and future state of the services sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the economy. A higher reading indicates increased business activity, while a lower reading may signal a slowdown in the services industry. Overall, the ISM Services Business Activity is a reliable and important tool for understanding the performance of the services sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 61.7, consensus 59. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 59.1. Before that (May 2026): 57.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |