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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Services Employment climbed to 47.8 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ISM Services Employment climbed to 47.8 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.4 from July's 47.4 reading. The reading missed the 51.8 consensus by 4. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.3. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
47.8
Actual
51.8
Consensus
47.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.45
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 49.5
Actual: 47.8
Error: +1.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.89 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Services Employment (United States) was reported at 47.80 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 51.80 by 4.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.06, ranging from 47.20 to 52.00 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.70, down from the prior three at 51.37. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.75) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.67). In September readings over the past 3 years, ISM Services Employment has averaged 48.17.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.45.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ISM Services Employment - US
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About ISM Services Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Services Employment is a key financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the services sector of the economy. It is based on a survey of purchasing managers in various service industries, providing valuable insights into the overall health of the job market. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can indicate potential changes in consumer spending and economic growth. A higher ISM Services Employment reading suggests a strong labor market and potential for increased business activity, while a lower reading may signal a slowdown in job growth and economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 47.8, consensus 51.8. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 47.4. Before that (May 2026): 47.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.89) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |