Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Services Employment climbed to 50.1 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US ISM Services Employment climbed to 50.1 in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2.3 from August's 47.8 reading. The reading matched the 48 consensus. ISM Services Employment has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, ISM Services Employment averaged 47.6, vs 47.95 in the prior 3-month window. ISM Services Employment is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
50.1
Actual
48
Consensus
47.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.45
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 45.85
Actual: 50.1
Error: -4.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.85 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Services Employment (United States) was reported at 50.10 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 48.00 by 2.10. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.38, ranging from 47.40 to 52.00 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 48.43, down from the prior three at 50.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.64) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.74). In October readings over the past 3 years, ISM Services Employment has averaged 48.47.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.45.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
ISM Services Employment - US
Loading chart data...
About ISM Services Employment — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Services Employment is a key financial indicator that measures the employment trends in the services sector of the economy. It is based on a survey of purchasing managers in various service industries, providing valuable insights into the overall health of the job market. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can indicate potential changes in consumer spending and economic growth. A higher ISM Services Employment reading suggests a strong labor market and potential for increased business activity, while a lower reading may signal a slowdown in job growth and economic activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 50.1, consensus 48. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 47.8. Before that (Jul 2026): 47.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.85) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |