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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Services New Orders fell to 59.8 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US ISM Services New Orders fell to 59.8 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.1 from August's 60.9 reading. The reading matched the 60.3 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 56.22. Over the past 3 months, ISM Services New Orders averaged 59.05, vs 55.4 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
59.8
Actual
60.3
Consensus
60.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.73
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 61.75
Actual: 59.8
Error: +1.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Services New Orders (United States) was reported at 59.80 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 60.30 by 0.50. The reading fell from the previous value of 60.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 57.10, ranging from 52.90 to 60.90 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 59.30, up from the prior three at 56.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.56) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.90). In October readings over the past 3 years, ISM Services New Orders has averaged 56.53.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.73.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ISM Services New Orders - US
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About ISM Services New Orders — United States
DEFINITION
ISM Services New Orders is a key economic indicator that measures the level of new orders placed with service-providing companies in the United States. This data is collected and reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to gauge the strength of the service sector and overall economic activity. A higher reading of ISM Services New Orders indicates increased demand for services, which can lead to higher revenue and growth for companies in this sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 59.8, consensus 60.3. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 60.9. Before that (Jul 2026): 57.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |