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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Services PMI fell to 54.9 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US ISM Services PMI fell to 54.9 in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.5 from August's 55.4 reading. The reading matched the 55 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 4.9. Over the past 3 months, ISM Services PMI averaged 54.75, vs 54.05 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54.9
Actual
55
Consensus
55.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.23
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 55.18
Actual: 54.9
Error: +0.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
ISM Services PMI (United States) was reported at 54.90 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 55.00 by 0.10. The reading fell from the previous value of 55.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 54.24, ranging from 52.40 to 56.10 across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 54.80, up from the prior three at 54.80. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.14) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.83). In October readings over the past 3 years, ISM Services PMI has averaged 53.27.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.23.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ISM Services PMI - US
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About ISM Services PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in the United States. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the services industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can signal changes in economic activity and inflationary pressures. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. The ISM Services PMI is a reliable tool for assessing the current and future state of the US economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 54.9, consensus 55. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 55.4. Before that (Jul 2026): 54.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |