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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Services PMI climbed to 55.4 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ISM Services PMI climbed to 55.4 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 1.3 from July's 54.1 reading. The reading matched the 54.3 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 3.4. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
55.4
Actual
54.3
Consensus
54.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.44
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 54.1
Actual: 55.4
Error: -1.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
ISM Services PMI (United States) was reported at 55.40 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 54.30 by 1.10. The reading rose from the previous value of 54.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.70, ranging from 50.00 to 56.10 across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 54.67, down from the prior three at 54.77. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.72) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.87). In September readings over the past 3 years, ISM Services PMI has averaged 52.97.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.44.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ISM Services PMI - US
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About ISM Services PMI — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in the United States. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the services industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can signal changes in economic activity and inflationary pressures. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. The ISM Services PMI is a reliable tool for assessing the current and future state of the US economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 55.4, consensus 54.3. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 54.1. Before that (May 2026): 54.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |