The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) for December 2025, released on January 7, 2026, reported 7.15 million job openings. This figure represents a significant decline from November’s 7.67 million openings, a 6.80% month-over-month (MoM) drop. The reading also falls below the consensus estimate of 7.60 million, indicating a softer labor demand than expected. Compared to December 2024, when openings stood at approximately 7.74 million, the current level is down 7.70% year-over-year (YoY). Over the past six months, the trend shows a gradual easing from the peak summer months, where openings hovered near 7.40 million to 7.60 million.

Drivers this month

• Seasonal adjustments likely contributed to the December decline, as year-end hiring typically slows.
• Monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve has begun to temper labor demand.
• Sectoral shifts, particularly in technology and manufacturing, have reduced openings.

Policy pulse

The drop in job openings aligns with the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to moderate inflation by tightening financial conditions. The labor market remains tight but shows early signs of cooling, potentially easing wage pressures that have fueled inflation.

Market lens

Initial market reaction saw a modest decline in short-term Treasury yields and a slight weakening of the US dollar, reflecting expectations for a slower pace of Fed rate hikes. Equity markets showed mixed responses, with cyclical sectors underperforming.

JOLTs Job Openings serve as a leading indicator of labor market health and broader economic momentum. The 7.15 million openings in December 2025 remain elevated compared to historical norms, which typically range between 5.50 million and 6.50 million in pre-pandemic periods. However, the decline from November’s 7.67 million and the 12-month average of 7.61 million signals a moderation in labor demand.

Comparative context

• December 2025: 7.15 million openings
• November 2025: 7.67 million openings (prior month)
• October 2025: 7.66 million openings (two months prior)
• 12-month average (Jan–Dec 2025): 7.61 million openings
• December 2024: ~7.74 million openings (year-ago)

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The Federal Reserve’s restrictive stance, with the federal funds rate near 5.50%, has begun to weigh on labor demand. Higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions have cooled investment and hiring intentions. The JOLTs decline is consistent with other labor market indicators showing slower job growth and easing wage inflation.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal stimulus has waned compared to pandemic-era levels, with government spending growth slowing. The absence of large-scale fiscal support may contribute to the moderation in openings, especially in public sector and infrastructure-related jobs.

External shocks & geopolitical risks

Global uncertainties, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and East Asia, have added caution to hiring plans, particularly in export-dependent industries.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: US 2-year Treasury yields fell 5 basis points, while the USD Index declined 0.30% within the first hour post-release. Equity sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and consumer discretionary, saw modest gains.

Looking ahead, the JOLTs data points to a labor market that remains tight but is gradually easing. This has important implications for inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic growth.

Scenario analysis

• Bullish (20% probability): Labor demand stabilizes above 7 million, supporting steady wage growth and consumer spending, enabling moderate economic expansion without triggering inflation spikes.
• Base (60% probability): Job openings continue a slow decline toward 6.80 million by mid-2026, reflecting a balanced cooling of the labor market consistent with Fed tightening and moderate growth.
• Bearish (20% probability): Openings fall sharply below 6.50 million, signaling a labor market contraction that could presage recessionary pressures and force a Fed pivot to easing.

Structural & long-run trends

Demographic shifts, including aging workforce and slower labor force growth, continue to underpin tight labor markets. Technological change and remote work trends also reshape hiring patterns, potentially dampening traditional job openings metrics. These factors suggest that even with cyclical easing, labor demand may remain structurally elevated compared to past decades.

The December 2025 JOLTs Job Openings report reveals a labor market in moderation but far from collapse. The 7.15 million openings, while down sharply from November, remain historically high. This suggests employers are cautious but still seeking workers amid ongoing economic uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.

For policymakers, the data supports a cautious approach to further rate hikes, balancing inflation control with labor market resilience. For investors, the evolving labor market dynamics will influence sectors sensitive to consumer demand and interest rates.

Overall, the JOLTs data underscores the complexity of the US economy’s transition from post-pandemic recovery to a more sustainable growth path.

Key Markets Likely to React to JOLTs Job Openings

The JOLTs Job Openings data is a critical barometer for labor market health, influencing multiple asset classes. Markets that closely track this indicator include US Treasury futures, the US dollar, and equity sectors sensitive to economic cycles. Understanding these relationships helps anticipate market moves following JOLTs releases.

• SPX – The S&P 500 index often reacts to labor market data, with strong openings boosting cyclical stocks.
• USDEUR – The USD/EUR currency pair reflects shifts in Fed policy expectations driven by labor market strength.
• USDJPY – Sensitive to risk sentiment and monetary policy divergence, USD/JPY moves on US labor data.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin prices often respond to macroeconomic shifts and risk appetite changes linked to labor market trends.
• TSLA – Tesla’s stock is sensitive to consumer demand and economic cycles, which are influenced by labor market conditions.

FAQs

What is the significance of the JOLTs Job Openings report?

The JOLTs report measures labor demand by tracking job vacancies, offering insight into labor market tightness and economic momentum.

How does the December 2025 JOLTs reading affect Federal Reserve policy?

The decline in openings suggests easing labor demand, which may reduce inflation pressures and influence the Fed’s decision on interest rates.

Which markets are most sensitive to JOLTs data?

US Treasury yields, the US dollar, equity indices like SPX, and cyclical stocks typically react strongly to JOLTs releases.

Takeaway: December’s JOLTs Job Openings signal a cooling yet resilient labor market, crucial for guiding monetary policy and market expectations in 2026.