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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Kansas Fed Composite Index climbed to 14 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Kansas Fed Composite Index climbed to 14 in September 2026, up 4 from August's 10 reading. The print exceeded the 5 consensus by 9. Kansas Fed Composite Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Kansas Fed Composite Index averaged 9.5, vs 9.67 in the prior 3-month window. Kansas Fed Composite Index is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
14
Actual
5
Consensus
10
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.75
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.5
Actual: 14
Error: -8.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Kansas Fed Composite Index (United States) was reported at 14.00 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.00 by 9.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 10.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.30, ranging from 1.00 to 14.00 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11.00, up from the prior three at 10.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.47) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.66). In September readings over the past 3 years, Kansas Fed Composite Index has averaged 3.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.75.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Inventories MoM (Oct 15) and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Kansas Fed Composite Index - US
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About Kansas Fed Composite Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Kansas Fed Composite Index is a key economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the economy in the state of Kansas. It takes into account various factors such as employment, production, and sales to provide a comprehensive view of the state's economic activity. This index is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses as it can provide valuable insights into the current and future economic conditions in Kansas.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 14, consensus 5. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 10. Before that (Jul 2026): 9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.65 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 336.3 | 334.13 | 335.8 | 336.05 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate | 336.94 | 334.98 | 336.65 | 336.79 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -11.1 | -2.09 | 1.9 | -4.60 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -11.1 | -2.09 | 1.9 | -4.60 | Medium |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.9 | 37.8 | 28.4 | 33.63 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1714 | 1710 | 1706.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 200 | 197.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.44 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 198.25 | 199 | 198.44 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.42 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.57 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.47 | High |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.382 | -0.5 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -3.186 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Medium | |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.042 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Low | |