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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index held to 17 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index held to 17 in August 2026. The print exceeded the 14 consensus by 3. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 8.92. Over the past 3 months, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index averaged 18, vs 10 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 87th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
17
Actual
14
Consensus
17
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.38
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 18.5
Actual: 17
Error: +1.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 17.00 in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 14.00 by 3.00. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.70, ranging from -3.00 to 19.00 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 17.67, up from the prior three at 10.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.68) is comparable than the prior year (σ 6.22). In August readings over the past 3 years, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged 7.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.38.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Goolsbee Speech (Sep 21) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index is a key economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the state of Kansas. It is based on a monthly survey of manufacturing executives and provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of production, new orders, employment, and other important factors. This index is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the strength of the Kansas economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 17, consensus 14. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 17. Before that (Jun 2026): 19.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.08 | 0.2 | 0.09 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.97 | 3.909 | 3.91 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 11 | 9 | 6.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -8 | -6 | -12.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 54.05 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.90 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.15 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 202 | 197.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -221 | -221.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1735 | 1745.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.61 | 0.61 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |
| Friday, September 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.95 | Low | |