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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 9 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 9 in May 2026, down 1 from April's 10 reading. The reading matched the 9 consensus. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
9
Actual
9
Consensus
10
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 14
Actual: 9
Error: +5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 9.00 in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 9.00 exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 10.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.60, ranging from -3.00 to 18.00 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 10.00, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.89) is comparable than the prior year (σ 6.51). In May readings over the past 3 years, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index has averaged -0.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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About Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index is a key economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in the state of Kansas. It is based on a monthly survey of manufacturing executives and provides valuable insights into the current and future trends of production, new orders, employment, and other important factors. This index is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the strength of the Kansas economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 9, consensus 9. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 10. Before that (Mar 2026): 11.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.