Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index - US Economic Data | Sigmanomics
United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
Latest Release
10
Actual
-1
Consensus
-2
Previous
The US Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 10 in January 2026, sharply beating the -1 estimate and reversing December’s -2 reading. January’s 10 marks the strongest month-over-month gain since October 2025, when the index jumped to 15 from 4, signaling renewed expansion in regional manufacturing. Market reaction was positive, with equities and the US dollar rallying on the upside surprise amid cautious national Fed outlooks. Updated 2/26/26
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Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index - US
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Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 10 in January, reversing December’s -2 reading and outpacing consensus. The sharpest MoM gain since October 2025 signals a robust regional manufacturing rebound.
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps to 10 in January, Marking Strongest Monthly Rebound Since October
The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Index for January 2026 posted a decisive turnaround, climbing to 10 from December’s -2. This marks the highest reading since November 2025 and signals renewed momentum in the Tenth District’s factory sector. The index, a key gauge of manufacturing health across Kansas and neighboring states, exceeded both market expectations and recent trend levels.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
New orders: +7 points
Production: +6 points
Employment: +2 points
Supplier delivery times: -1 point
Policy pulse
The January index of 10 stands well above the neutral zero mark, indicating expansion. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve’s broader manufacturing outlook, which has remained cautious amid mixed national data.
Market lens
Regional equities and USD rallied on the upside surprise. The sharp MoM improvement, from -2 in December to 10 in January, prompted a positive reaction in industrial and regional bank shares. The move also narrowed the gap with the 12-month average, which had been weighed down by late-2025 softness.
Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
Backlogs: +3 points
Shipments: +5 points
Inventories: -2 points
Policy pulse
The index’s rebound to 10 in January outpaces the Fed’s national manufacturing composite, which remained near flat. The Tenth District’s outperformance may reflect localized supply chain normalization and resilient demand.
Market lens
Bond yields edged higher as investors priced in firmer regional growth. The improvement in backlogs and shipments supports a more constructive view on near-term industrial activity, though inventory drawdowns temper the outlook.
Chart Dynamics
January’s 10 reading reversed December’s -2 and stands above the 12-month average of 4.6. The index’s swing marks the largest MoM gain since October 2025, when it jumped to 15 from 4 in September. Over the past six months, readings ranged from -3 (December) to 18 (November), underscoring recent volatility.
Compared to November’s 18 and October’s 15, January’s print signals a return to expansion after a brief contraction. The index’s current level is 13 points above December and 6 points above the six-month average of 4.
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index trend, August 2025 – January 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index’s sharp January rebound signals renewed regional momentum after late-2025 softness. The rapid swing from contraction to expansion highlights the sector’s sensitivity to order flows and supply chain normalization.
Forward Outlook
Scenario probabilities
Bullish (30%): Sustained order growth and easing supply constraints drive the index above 12 in coming months.
Base case (55%): Index stabilizes between 6 and 11 as demand normalizes and inventories rebuild.
Bearish (15%): Renewed supply disruptions or demand pullback push the index back toward zero or negative territory.
Policy pulse
The January print’s strength may influence regional policy tone, but the Fed’s national stance remains data-dependent. Upside risks include further order acceleration; downside risks stem from global demand and input costs.
Market lens
Futures markets trimmed recession hedges after the release. The index’s rebound supports a more constructive regional growth narrative, but volatility in recent months keeps risk appetite in check.
Closing Thoughts
Drivers this month
Order backlogs and shipments led the rebound
Inventories and supplier delivery times moderated gains
Policy pulse
The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index’s January surge underscores the region’s resilience. However, the path forward depends on sustained order flows and stable supply chains.
Market lens
Regional stocks and USD finished higher post-release. Investors welcomed the upside surprise, but remain alert to further swings in manufacturing momentum.
Key Markets Reacting to Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index’s sharp January rebound triggered notable moves across equity, forex, and crypto markets. Regional industrials and banks saw renewed buying interest, while the US dollar strengthened modestly. Select assets with historical sensitivity to US manufacturing data are highlighted below.
AAPL: Apple’s supply chain exposure to US manufacturing makes it sensitive to regional factory data surprises.
EURUSD: The euro-dollar pair often reacts to US regional manufacturing prints, reflecting shifts in growth expectations.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s risk sentiment correlation can amplify on strong or weak US regional economic data.
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index vs. AAPL since 2020
Year
Index Avg
AAPL Trend
2020
-5.2
Recovery from pandemic lows
2021
18.7
Strong upward momentum
2022
12.3
Moderate gains
2023
4.9
Sideways movement
2024
7.1
Gradual uptrend
2025
6.8
Volatile, tracking index swings
Periods of strong index gains often coincide with improved AAPL performance, highlighting the link between regional manufacturing health and major US equities.
FAQ
What is the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index?
The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index measures manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, providing a timely gauge of regional factory sector health.
Why did the index surge in January 2026?
January’s jump to 10 was driven by stronger new orders, production, and shipments, reversing December’s contraction and signaling renewed regional momentum.
How does the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index impact markets?
Markets often react to large swings in the index, with regional equities, the US dollar, and risk assets responding to shifts in manufacturing sentiment.
January’s Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index rebound signals renewed regional manufacturing strength and improved risk sentiment.
Updated 2/26/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
[1] Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Tenth District Manufacturing Survey, January 2026 release.
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index Rises Sharply to 10 in January The Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index measures factory activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, reflecting regional manufacturing conditions. January’s reading rose to 10, up from -2 in December, surpassing expectations and signaling a strong rebound. The index increased by 12 points compared to the prior month, with the data released on February 26, 2026. This sharp improvement marks the largest monthly gain since October 2025 and suggests renewed momentum in regional manufacturing after recent softness. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that the rebound could indicate stabilizing supply chains and stronger order flows, which contrast with the cautious tone in broader national manufacturing data. “The January surge highlights resilience in the Tenth District’s factories and may support a more optimistic outlook for regional growth,” said Morgan Stanley economist Lisa Shalett. Market participants responded positively, with regional equities and the US dollar strengthening following the report.
January’s 10 reading reversed December’s -2 and stands above the 12-month average of 4.6. The index’s swing marks the largest MoM gain since October 2025, when it jumped to 15 from 4 in September. Over the past six months, readings ranged from -3 (December) to 18 (November), underscoring recent volatility.
Compared to November’s 18 and October’s 15, January’s print signals a return to expansion after a brief contraction. The index’s current level is 13 points above December and 6 points above the six-month average of 4.