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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Leading Index MoM climbed to 0.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Leading Index MoM climbed to 0.1% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.7% from March's -0.6% reading. The print exceeded the -0.1% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.38%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Index MoM averaged -0.35%, vs -0.25% in the prior 3-month window. Leading Index MoM is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
-0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.1
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Leading Index MoM (United States) was reported at 0.1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.19%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.1% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, up from the prior three at -0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Leading Index MoM - US
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About Leading Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Leading Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the changes in economic activity and predicts future trends. It is calculated by analyzing a variety of economic data, such as stock prices, consumer confidence, and housing starts, to provide insight into the direction of the economy. This indicator is widely used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions and anticipate potential shifts in the market. A positive change in the Leading Index MoM suggests a growing economy, while a negative change may indicate a potential economic downturn. Overall, the Leading Index MoM is a valuable tool for monitoring and forecasting economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jan 2026): -0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.