Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Leading Index MoM fell to -0.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Leading Index MoM fell to -0.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from May's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the -0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.31%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Index MoM averaged -0.13%, vs -0.15% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 60th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.05
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Leading Index MoM (United States) was reported at -0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.15%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.1% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0%, up from the prior three at -0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.3%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Leading Index MoM - US
Loading chart data...
About Leading Index MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The Leading Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the changes in economic activity and predicts future trends. It is calculated by analyzing a variety of economic data, such as stock prices, consumer confidence, and housing starts, to provide insight into the direction of the economy. This indicator is widely used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions and anticipate potential shifts in the market. A positive change in the Leading Index MoM suggests a growing economy, while a negative change may indicate a potential economic downturn. Overall, the Leading Index MoM is a valuable tool for monitoring and forecasting economic conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.79) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 4.6 | 4 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 200 | 187.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1796 | 1800 | 1782.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.5 | 210 | 203.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 35 | 34.50 | Low | |