Key Takeaways: The US Leading Index MoM fell 0.2% in January, easing from December’s -0.3%. The indicator remains negative for a ninth straight month, signaling persistent economic headwinds but a slower pace of decline. Market reaction was muted, with investors awaiting further confirmation of trend shifts.
US Leading Index MoM: January’s Decline Moderates, Signaling Persistent Headwinds
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Manufacturing new orders: -0.07pp
- Building permits: +0.04pp
- Stock prices: +0.02pp
- Consumer expectations: -0.05pp
Policy Pulse
The January Leading Index MoM reading of -0.2% remains below the Federal Reserve’s implicit target for sustained expansion, which typically requires a positive or flat trajectory. The negative streak, now at nine months, continues to reflect caution in policy circles.Market Lens
Markets showed little immediate movement on the release, reflecting entrenched expectations. Investors have largely priced in a sluggish macro backdrop, with the latest print seen as a continuation rather than a turning point. Equity and bond markets remain rangebound, awaiting more decisive signals from broader economic data.Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
The Leading Index MoM has registered negative readings since May 2025, when it dropped to -1.0%. Over the past six months, values have ranged from -0.1% (June and August 2025) to -0.5% (September 2025). January’s -0.2% marks a modest improvement from December’s -0.3% and is less severe than April’s -0.7%[1].Comparative Figures
- January 2026: -0.2%
- December 2025: -0.3%
- September 2025: -0.5%
- April 2025: -0.7%
- May 2025: -1.0%
Methodology & Sources
The Conference Board compiles the Leading Index MoM using ten components, including new orders, building permits, and stock prices. Data is seasonally adjusted and reported as a month-over-month percentage change. All figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database and official Conference Board releases[1].Chart Dynamics
January’s Leading Index MoM print of -0.2% compares to December’s -0.3% and a 12-month average of -0.37%. The index has not posted a positive reading since June 2023. Over the last six months, the pace of decline has moderated, with the three-month average now at -0.27%, an improvement from the -0.5% average seen in mid-2025.
The current level is still below the long-term trend, which averaged +0.1% during 2022. The persistent negative readings underscore ongoing economic fragility, though the latest data hints at a possible stabilization.
What This Chart Tells Us: The Leading Index MoM’s persistent negative streak signals ongoing economic caution. However, the recent moderation in declines suggests downside momentum is easing. If this trend continues, it could mark a shift toward stabilization, though risks remain skewed to the downside.
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish: Index returns to flat or positive territory by Q2 2026 (probability: 20–30%).
- Base: Continued mild declines of -0.1% to -0.3% through mid-2026 (probability: 55–65%).
- Bearish: Renewed deterioration to -0.5% or worse if headwinds intensify (probability: 10–20%).
Upside & Downside Risks
Upside risks include a rebound in manufacturing orders and improved consumer confidence. Downside risks stem from persistent weakness in housing permits and global demand. The index’s trajectory will be shaped by these crosscurrents in the coming months.Closing Thoughts
The US Leading Index MoM’s January reading of -0.2% extends a nine-month negative run, but the slower pace of decline offers a glimmer of stabilization. While the index remains a cautionary signal for growth prospects, the moderation in recent months tempers fears of a deeper downturn. Investors and policymakers will watch for further evidence of a turning point in the months ahead.Key Markets Reacting to Leading Index MoM
The US Leading Index MoM often influences a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies and digital assets. Below are select symbols from verified Sigmanomics listings that have historically shown sensitivity to shifts in the indicator. Each symbol is hyperlinked for further detail.
AAPL’s performance has shown resilience even as the Leading Index MoM turned negative, but periods of stronger index readings have coincided with outsized gains.
- AAPL: US economic momentum can impact Apple’s revenue outlook and investor sentiment.
- EURUSD: Dollar strength or weakness often tracks with leading US economic signals.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s risk sentiment can shift on US macroeconomic data surprises.
| Year | Leading Index MoM (%) | AAPL YoY Return (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | +0.1 | 81.0 |
| 2021 | +0.2 | 34.0 |
| 2022 | +0.1 | -26.8 |
| 2023 | -0.2 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | -0.3 | 49.0 |
| 2025 | -0.4 | 48.5 |
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the US Leading Index MoM and why does it matter?
- The US Leading Index MoM tracks month-over-month changes in key economic indicators, providing early signals of economic turning points. It is closely watched by investors and policymakers for signs of future growth or contraction.
- How did the Leading Index MoM perform in January 2026?
- The index fell 0.2% in January, a smaller decline than December’s -0.3%, marking the ninth consecutive negative reading but at a slower pace of contraction.
- What are the main risks and scenarios for the Leading Index MoM?
- Risks include persistent weakness in manufacturing and housing. Scenarios range from stabilization to renewed declines, with the base case being continued mild contraction through mid-2026.
Takeaway: The US Leading Index MoM’s persistent negative streak signals ongoing caution, but the slower pace of decline in January offers a tentative sign of stabilization.
Updated 2/19/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Sources:
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Leading Index MoM, US, 2025–2026. Data cross-verified with Conference Board official releases.
