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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Manufacturing Production MoM fell to 0.0% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Manufacturing Production MoM fell to 0.0% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from May's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.12%. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Production MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.15
Actual: 0
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Production MoM (United States) was reported at 0% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.14%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.2%, down from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.81%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Production MoM has averaged 0.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Manufacturing Production MoM - US
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About Manufacturing Production MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of goods produced by the manufacturing sector in a given month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and performance of the manufacturing industry, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic growth. A positive change in Manufacturing Production MoM indicates an increase in production and can be seen as a sign of economic expansion, while a negative change may signal a decline in manufacturing activity. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions and forecasts about the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 4.6 | 4 | 4.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 200 | 187.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1796 | 1800 | 1782.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.5 | 210 | 203.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.85 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 37 | 36.50 | Low | |