Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations climbed to 3.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations climbed to 3.4% in September 2026, up 0.1% from August's 3.3% reading. The print exceeded the 3.2% consensus by 0.2%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.5%. Over the past 3 months, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations averaged 3.3%, vs 3.47% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.12 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.24
Actual: 3.4
Error: -0.16
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (United States) was reported at 3.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.42%, ranging from 3.2% to 3.9% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.33%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.5%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations has averaged 3.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.12%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FOMC Economic Projections (Sep 16) and Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations - US
Loading chart data...
About Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations — United States
DEFINITION
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations is a financial indicator that measures the expected rate of inflation in the state of Michigan over the next five years. This indicator is based on surveys of consumers, businesses, and financial experts, and provides valuable insights into the future economic outlook of the state. It is a key tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and plan for potential changes in the cost of goods and services in Michigan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |