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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations fell to 3.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations fell to 3.4% in June 2026, down 0.5% from May's 3.9% reading. The reading missed the 3.8% consensus by 0.4%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.7%. Over the past 3 months, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations averaged 3.48%, vs 3.3% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.8
Consensus
3.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.93
Actual: 3.4
Error: +0.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (United States) was reported at 3.4% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.8% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.54%, ranging from 3.2% to 4% across 19 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.5%, up from the prior three at 3.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.54%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations has averaged 3.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations - US
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About Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations — United States
DEFINITION
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations is a financial indicator that measures the expected rate of inflation in the state of Michigan over the next five years. This indicator is based on surveys of consumers, businesses, and financial experts, and provides valuable insights into the future economic outlook of the state. It is a key tool for investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and plan for potential changes in the cost of goods and services in Michigan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection.