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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Consumer Expectations fell to 45.8 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Michigan Consumer Expectations fell to 45.8 in September 2026, down 5.7 from August's 51.5 reading. The reading missed the 50.5 consensus by 4.7. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 50.83. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Consumer Expectations averaged 52.88, vs 47.97 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 4th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
45.8
Actual
50.5
Consensus
51.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.51
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 50.5
Actual: 45.8
Error: +4.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations (United States) was reported at 45.80 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 50.50 by 4.70. The reading fell from the previous value of 51.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.14, ranging from 44.10 to 56.60 across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.30, down from the prior three at 52.90. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.35) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.27). In September readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Consumer Expectations has averaged 61.29.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.51.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Michigan Consumer Expectations - US
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About Michigan Consumer Expectations — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Michigan Consumer Expectations Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the future outlook of consumers in the state of Michigan. It provides valuable insights into the sentiment and confidence of consumers, which can have a significant impact on the overall economy. This index is based on a survey of households and is considered a reliable gauge of consumer spending and economic growth in the region. Investors, businesses, and policymakers often use this index to make informed decisions and assess the health of the Michigan economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 45.8, consensus 50.5. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 50.6. Before that (Aug 2026): 50.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |