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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Consumer Expectations climbed to 48.8 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Michigan Consumer Expectations climbed to 48.8 in October 2026, up 2.5 from September's 46.3 reading. The reading matched the 47.3 consensus. Michigan Consumer Expectations has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Consumer Expectations averaged 49.48, vs 48.98 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
48.8
Actual
47.3
Consensus
46.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.02
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 46.88
Actual: 48.8
Error: -1.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations (United States) was reported at 48.80 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 47.30 by 1.50. The reading rose from the previous value of 46.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.54, ranging from 44.10 to 56.60 across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 47.47, down from the prior three at 49.30. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.80) is lower than the prior year (σ 9.72). In October readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Consumer Expectations has averaged 57.43.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.03.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Michigan Consumer Expectations - US
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About Michigan Consumer Expectations — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Michigan Consumer Expectations Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the future outlook of consumers in the state of Michigan. It provides valuable insights into the sentiment and confidence of consumers, which can have a significant impact on the overall economy. This index is based on a survey of households and is considered a reliable gauge of consumer spending and economic growth in the region. Investors, businesses, and policymakers often use this index to make informed decisions and assess the health of the Michigan economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 48.8, consensus 47.3. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 47.3. Before that (Sep 2026): 45.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |