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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Consumer Expectations climbed to 54 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Michigan Consumer Expectations climbed to 54 in July 2026, up 3.3 from June's 50.7 reading. The reading matched the 51.7 consensus. Michigan Consumer Expectations has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Consumer Expectations averaged 47.5, vs 53.02 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54
Actual
51.7
Consensus
50.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.48
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 51.88
Actual: 54
Error: -2.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Expectations (United States) was reported at 54.00 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51.70 by 2.30. The reading rose from the previous value of 50.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.21, ranging from 44.10 to 57.70 across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 49.13, down from the prior three at 54.13. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.32) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.52). In July readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Consumer Expectations has averaged 62.15.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.48.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Jul 30) and Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Michigan Consumer Expectations - US
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About Michigan Consumer Expectations — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Michigan Consumer Expectations Index is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the future outlook of consumers in the state of Michigan. It provides valuable insights into the sentiment and confidence of consumers, which can have a significant impact on the overall economy. This index is based on a survey of households and is considered a reliable gauge of consumer spending and economic growth in the region. Investors, businesses, and policymakers often use this index to make informed decisions and assess the health of the Michigan economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 54, consensus 51.7. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 49.3. Before that (May 2026): 44.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |