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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Consumer Sentiment climbed to 54.4 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment climbed to 54.4 in July 2026, up 4.9 from June's 49.5 reading. The print exceeded the 51 consensus by 3.4. Michigan Consumer Sentiment has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Consumer Sentiment averaged 47.93, vs 54.06 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54.4
Actual
51
Consensus
49.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.34
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 50.88
Actual: 54.4
Error: -3.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (United States) was reported at 54.40 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51.00 by 3.40. The reading rose from the previous value of 49.50. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 54.42, ranging from 44.80 to 61.70 across 18 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 49.37, down from the prior three at 55.13. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.66) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.75). In July readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Consumer Sentiment has averaged 62.15.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.34.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - US
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About Michigan Consumer Sentiment — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the level of confidence and optimism among consumers in the state of Michigan. It is based on a monthly survey of households and provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. This index is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and businesses as it can help predict future consumer behavior and market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 54.4, consensus 51. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 48.9. Before that (May 2026): 44.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.40) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |