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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 47.8 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 47.8 in September 2026, down 3.9 from August's 51.7 reading. The reading missed the 51 consensus by 3.2. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 51.42. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Consumer Sentiment averaged 53.08, vs 48.77 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
47.8
Actual
51
Consensus
51.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.38
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 51.23
Actual: 47.8
Error: +3.43
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (United States) was reported at 47.80 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 51.00 by 3.20. The reading fell from the previous value of 51.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.86, ranging from 44.80 to 57.30 across 18 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 50.17, down from the prior three at 52.83. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.12) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.81). In September readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Consumer Sentiment has averaged 61.89.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.38.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Michigan Consumer Sentiment - US
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About Michigan Consumer Sentiment — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the level of confidence and optimism among consumers in the state of Michigan. It is based on a monthly survey of households and provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic health. This index is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and businesses as it can help predict future consumer behavior and market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 47.8, consensus 51. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 51. Before that (Aug 2026): 51.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |