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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Current Conditions fell to 50.9 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Michigan Current Conditions fell to 50.9 in September 2026, down 1 from August's 51.9 reading. The reading matched the 51.3 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 10.3. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Current Conditions averaged 53.35, vs 50.07 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 18th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50.9
Actual
51.3
Consensus
51.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.47
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 51.68
Actual: 50.9
Error: +0.77
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Current Conditions (United States) was reported at 50.90 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 51.30 by 0.40. The reading fell from the previous value of 51.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.98, ranging from 45.80 to 61.00 across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 51.53, down from the prior three at 52.70. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.14) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.72). In September readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Current Conditions has averaged 62.84.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.48.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Michigan Current Conditions - US
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About Michigan Current Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Michigan Current Conditions Index is a comprehensive financial indicator that measures the current economic state of Michigan. It takes into account various factors such as employment rates, consumer spending, and business activity to provide a clear and accurate assessment of the state's economic health. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and gain valuable insights into the current economic conditions in Michigan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 50.9, consensus 51.3. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 51.8. Before that (Aug 2026): 51.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |