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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Current Conditions climbed to 54.9 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Michigan Current Conditions climbed to 54.9 in July 2026, up 7.2 from June's 47.7 reading. The print exceeded the 48.7 consensus by 6.2. Michigan Current Conditions has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Current Conditions averaged 48.63, vs 55.72 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
54.9
Actual
48.7
Consensus
47.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.36
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 48.73
Actual: 54.9
Error: -6.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Current Conditions (United States) was reported at 54.90 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 48.70 by 6.20. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 56.33, ranging from 45.80 to 68.00 across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 49.70, down from the prior three at 56.73. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.50) is comparable than the prior year (σ 5.78). In July readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Current Conditions has averaged 62.13.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.36.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Jul 30) and Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Michigan Current Conditions - US
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About Michigan Current Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Michigan Current Conditions Index is a comprehensive financial indicator that measures the current economic state of Michigan. It takes into account various factors such as employment rates, consumer spending, and business activity to provide a clear and accurate assessment of the state's economic health. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and gain valuable insights into the current economic conditions in Michigan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 54.9, consensus 48.7. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 48.4. Before that (May 2026): 45.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |