Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Current Conditions fell to 46.7 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Michigan Current Conditions fell to 46.7 in October 2026, down 4.2 from September's 50.9 reading. The reading matched the 44.7 consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 50.38. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Current Conditions averaged 50.83, vs 49.22 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
46.7
Actual
44.7
Consensus
50.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.46
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 44.03
Actual: 46.7
Error: -2.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Current Conditions (United States) was reported at 46.70 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 44.70 by 2.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 50.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.88, ranging from 44.70 to 58.30 across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.43, down from the prior three at 51.53. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.84) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.97). In October readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Current Conditions has averaged 56.43.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.46.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Michigan Current Conditions - US
Loading chart data...
About Michigan Current Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
Index The Michigan Current Conditions Index is a comprehensive financial indicator that measures the current economic state of Michigan. It takes into account various factors such as employment rates, consumer spending, and business activity to provide a clear and accurate assessment of the state's economic health. This index is widely used by businesses, policymakers, and investors to make informed decisions and gain valuable insights into the current economic conditions in Michigan.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 46.7, consensus 44.7. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 44.7. Before that (Sep 2026): 50.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.4 | -2.1 | -0.2 | -0.30 | Medium |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.398 | 1.403 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 2.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.65 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.55 | High |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.60 | Medium |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 444.6 | 443.2 | 444.4 | 444.50 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.25 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | -0.4 | 0 | -0.1 | -0.25 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | -2 | 0 | -1.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 0 | -5 | -7 | -3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.676 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.66 | High |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 91.7 | 84.2 | 81 | 86.35 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | -0.6 | 5.1 | -3.5 | -2.05 | High |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 4.4 | -0.9 | -2 | 1.20 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | 4 | -1.8 | -3 | 0.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 15:45 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.45 | Medium |
| 17:00 | US | Money Supply | 23.41 | 23.34 | 23.4 | 23.41 | Low |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.031 | -4.93 | 0.8 | -0.62 | Medium |
| 20:50 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.031 | -4.93 | 0.8 | -0.62 | Medium |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -0.82 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -1.94 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 0.47 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |