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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Inflation Expectations climbed to 4.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Michigan Inflation Expectations climbed to 4.6% in September 2026, up 0.6% from August's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 3.9% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.22%. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Inflation Expectations averaged 4.18%, vs 4.53% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.6
Actual
3.9
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 3.88
Actual: 4.6
Error: -0.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Inflation Expectations (United States) was reported at 4.6% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.9% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.21%, ranging from 3.4% to 4.8% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.3%, down from the prior three at 4.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.43%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.41%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Inflation Expectations has averaged 3.69%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Michigan Inflation Expectations - US
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About Michigan Inflation Expectations — United States
DEFINITION
Michigan Inflation Expectations is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation in the state of Michigan. It is based on surveys of consumers, businesses, and financial experts, and provides valuable insights into the future economic outlook of the state. This indicator is used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly. By tracking Michigan Inflation Expectations, stakeholders can stay ahead of potential inflationary trends and mitigate their impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.6 %, consensus 3.9 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.3 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 4.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |