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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Michigan Inflation Expectations fell to 4.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Michigan Inflation Expectations fell to 4.2% in July 2026, down 0.4% from June's 4.6% reading. The reading matched the 4.3% consensus. Michigan Inflation Expectations has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Michigan Inflation Expectations averaged 4.65%, vs 3.78% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
4.3
Consensus
4.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.33
Actual: 4.2
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Michigan Inflation Expectations (United States) was reported at 4.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.3% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.31%, ranging from 3.4% to 4.9% across 18 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.53%, up from the prior three at 3.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.5%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Michigan Inflation Expectations has averaged 3.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Michigan Inflation Expectations - US
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About Michigan Inflation Expectations — United States
DEFINITION
Michigan Inflation Expectations is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation in the state of Michigan. It is based on surveys of consumers, businesses, and financial experts, and provides valuable insights into the future economic outlook of the state. This indicator is used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and adjust their strategies accordingly. By tracking Michigan Inflation Expectations, stakeholders can stay ahead of potential inflationary trends and mitigate their impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.2 %, consensus 4.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 4.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 4.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.42) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |