Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Monthly Budget Statement climbed to -120B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Monthly Budget Statement climbed to -120B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 173B from May's -293B reading. The print exceeded the -132.8B consensus by 12.8B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -138.17B. Over the past 3 months, Monthly Budget Statement averaged -39B, vs -189.03B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-120
Actual
-132.8
Consensus
-293
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±42.5 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -138.55
Actual: -120
Error: -18.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement (United States) was reported at -120.00 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -132.80 billion by 12.80 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -293.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -149.18 billion, ranging from -345.00 billion to 215.00 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -66.00 billion, up from the prior three at -182.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 185.88 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 187.03 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Monthly Budget Statement has averaged -53.00 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 42.50 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Monthly Budget Statement - US
Loading chart data...
About Monthly Budget Statement — United States
DEFINITION
The Monthly Budget Statement is a financial indicator that provides a comprehensive overview of an individual or organization's income and expenses for a specific month. It includes a breakdown of all sources of income, such as salaries, investments, and other sources, as well as a detailed list of all expenses, including bills, rent, and other expenditures. This statement is a valuable tool for tracking financial health and making informed decisions about budgeting and spending. It is often used by individuals, businesses, and governments to monitor their financial performance and make necessary adjustments to achieve financial goals.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -120 B, consensus -132.8 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -293 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 215 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |