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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Monthly Budget Statement fell to -293B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Monthly Budget Statement fell to -293B in May 2026, released June 2026, down 508B from April's 215B reading. The reading missed the -275B consensus by 18B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -140.09B. Over the past 3 months, Monthly Budget Statement averaged 25.45B, vs -182.67B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-293
Actual
-275
Consensus
215
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±42.5 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -277.5
Actual: -293
Error: +15.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement (United States) was reported at -293.00 billion in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -275.00 billion by 18.00 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 215.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -135.82 billion, ranging from -345.00 billion to 215.00 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -128.67 billion, up from the prior three at -137.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 192.66 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 181.03 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Monthly Budget Statement has averaged -318.67 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 42.50 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Monthly Budget Statement - US
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About Monthly Budget Statement — United States
DEFINITION
The Monthly Budget Statement is a financial indicator that provides a comprehensive overview of an individual or organization's income and expenses for a specific month. It includes a breakdown of all sources of income, such as salaries, investments, and other sources, as well as a detailed list of all expenses, including bills, rent, and other expenditures. This statement is a valuable tool for tracking financial health and making informed decisions about budgeting and spending. It is often used by individuals, businesses, and governments to monitor their financial performance and make necessary adjustments to achieve financial goals.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -293 B, consensus -275 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 215 B. Before that (Mar 2026): -164.1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.