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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Monthly Budget Statement fell to -432B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Monthly Budget Statement fell to -432B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 312B from June's -120B reading. The reading missed the -346B consensus by 86B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -150.42B. Over the past 3 months, Monthly Budget Statement averaged -206.5B, vs -85.7B in the prior 3-month window. Monthly Budget Statement is now the lowest in 35 months.
Latest Release
-432
Actual
-346
Consensus
-120
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±52.14 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -347.3
Actual: -432
Error: +84.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monthly Budget Statement (United States) was reported at -432.00 billion in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -346.00 billion by 86.00 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -120.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -143.70 billion, ranging from -432.00 billion to 215.00 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -281.67 billion, down from the prior three at -62.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 200.33 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 186.13 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Monthly Budget Statement has averaged -322.33 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 52.14 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Monthly Budget Statement - US
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About Monthly Budget Statement — United States
DEFINITION
The Monthly Budget Statement is a financial indicator that provides a comprehensive overview of an individual or organization's income and expenses for a specific month. It includes a breakdown of all sources of income, such as salaries, investments, and other sources, as well as a detailed list of all expenses, including bills, rent, and other expenditures. This statement is a valuable tool for tracking financial health and making informed decisions about budgeting and spending. It is often used by individuals, businesses, and governments to monitor their financial performance and make necessary adjustments to achieve financial goals.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -432 B, consensus -346 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -120 B. Before that (May 2026): -293 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |