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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 29 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 29 in October 2026, down 3 from September's 32 reading. The reading missed the 32 consensus by 3. NAHB Housing Market Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, NAHB Housing Market Index averaged 33.5, vs 35.33 in the prior 3-month window. NAHB Housing Market Index is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
29
Actual
32
Consensus
32
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.75
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 32
Actual: 29
Error: +3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index (United States) was reported at 29.00 in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 32.00 by 3.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 32.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 35.45, ranging from 29.00 to 39.00 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 32.00, down from the prior three at 35.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.81) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.62). In October readings over the past 3 years, NAHB Housing Market Index has averaged 36.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.75.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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NAHB Housing Market Index - US
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About NAHB Housing Market Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NAHB Housing Market Index is a monthly survey that measures the confidence of home builders in the current housing market conditions. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and strength of the housing market, as well as future expectations for new home construction. This widely recognized indicator is used by industry professionals and investors to gauge the state of the housing industry and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 29, consensus 32. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 32. Before that (Aug 2026): 35.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.71) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.37 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |