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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 34 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 34 in July 2026, down 2 from June's 36 reading. The reading matched the 35 consensus. NAHB Housing Market Index has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, NAHB Housing Market Index averaged 36, vs 36 in the prior 3-month window. NAHB Housing Market Index is now the lowest in 9 months.
Latest Release
34
Actual
35
Consensus
36
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.25
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 35.25
Actual: 34
Error: +1.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index (United States) was reported at 34.00 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 35.00 by 1.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 36.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 35.91, ranging from 32.00 to 39.00 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 35.33, down from the prior three at 37.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.27) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.88). In July readings over the past 3 years, NAHB Housing Market Index has averaged 36.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.25.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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NAHB Housing Market Index - US
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About NAHB Housing Market Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NAHB Housing Market Index is a monthly survey that measures the confidence of home builders in the current housing market conditions. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and strength of the housing market, as well as future expectations for new home construction. This widely recognized indicator is used by industry professionals and investors to gauge the state of the housing industry and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 34, consensus 35. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 35. Before that (May 2026): 37.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.78) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |