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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 35 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 35 in June 2026, down 2 from May's 37 reading. The reading matched the 36 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 3. Over the past 3 months, NAHB Housing Market Index averaged 35.5, vs 37 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 27th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
35
Actual
36
Consensus
37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.75
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 37
Actual: 35
Error: +2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index (United States) was reported at 35.00 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 36.00 by 1.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 37.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 35.50, ranging from 32.00 to 39.00 across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 36.67, down from the prior three at 37.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.50) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.48). In June readings over the past 3 years, NAHB Housing Market Index has averaged 41.25.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.75.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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NAHB Housing Market Index - US
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About NAHB Housing Market Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NAHB Housing Market Index is a monthly survey that measures the confidence of home builders in the current housing market conditions. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and strength of the housing market, as well as future expectations for new home construction. This widely recognized indicator is used by industry professionals and investors to gauge the state of the housing industry and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 35, consensus 36. Prior reading (May 2026): 37. Before that (Apr 2026): 34.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.82) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.