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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 32 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 32 in September 2026, down 3 from August's 35 reading. The reading missed the 34 consensus by 2. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 36. Over the past 3 months, NAHB Housing Market Index averaged 34.5, vs 35.33 in the prior 3-month window. NAHB Housing Market Index is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
32
Actual
34
Consensus
35
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.25
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 32.5
Actual: 35
Error: -2.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAHB Housing Market Index (United States) was reported at 32.00 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 34.00 by 2.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 35.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 36.18, ranging from 32.00 to 39.00 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 34.67, down from the prior three at 37.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.95) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.38). In August readings over the past 3 years, NAHB Housing Market Index has averaged 35.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.25.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Sep 16) and Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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NAHB Housing Market Index - US
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About NAHB Housing Market Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NAHB Housing Market Index is a monthly survey that measures the confidence of home builders in the current housing market conditions. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and strength of the housing market, as well as future expectations for new home construction. This widely recognized indicator is used by industry professionals and investors to gauge the state of the housing industry and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 32, consensus 34. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 35. Before that (Jul 2026): 34.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.79) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |