Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NFIB Business Optimism Index climbed to 99.8 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US NFIB Business Optimism Index climbed to 99.8 in July 2026, released August 2026, up 2.4 from June's 97.4 reading. The reading matched the 97.5 consensus. NFIB Business Optimism Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, NFIB Business Optimism Index averaged 96.35, vs 96.83 in the prior 3-month window. NFIB Business Optimism Index is now the highest in 10 months.
Latest Release
99.8
Actual
97.5
Consensus
97.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.71
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 97.73
Actual: 99.8
Error: -2.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index (United States) was reported at 99.80 in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 97.50 by 2.30. The reading rose from the previous value of 97.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 98.44, ranging from 95.30 to 100.80 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 97.50, down from the prior three at 98.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.58) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.21). In August readings over the past 3 years, NFIB Business Optimism Index has averaged 97.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.71.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug 20) and Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
NFIB Business Optimism Index - US
Loading chart data...
About NFIB Business Optimism Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NFIB Business Optimism Index is a key economic indicator that measures the confidence and outlook of small business owners in the United States. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and the potential for growth and expansion in the small business sector. This index is based on a survey of thousands of small business owners and covers a wide range of factors such as sales, hiring, and capital spending. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to gauge the sentiment and expectations of small business owners, making it a crucial tool for understanding the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 99.8, consensus 97.5. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 97.4. Before that (May 2026): 95.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.53) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 4.405 | 17.422 | -0.6 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.688 | -0.968 | -1.2 | -0.26 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.53 | -0.01 | -0.9 | -1.22 | Low |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 36 | 15 | 18.00 | Low | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 54.5 | 53.2 | 53.30 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.6 | 54 | 53.90 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.9 | 54.65 | Medium | |