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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NFIB Business Optimism Index fell to 95.3 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US NFIB Business Optimism Index fell to 95.3 in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.6 from April's 95.9 reading. The reading matched the 96 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 3.5. Over the past 3 months, NFIB Business Optimism Index averaged 95.85, vs 99.2 in the prior 3-month window. NFIB Business Optimism Index is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
95.3
Actual
96
Consensus
95.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.71
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 95.9
Actual: 95.3
Error: +0.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NFIB Business Optimism Index (United States) was reported at 95.30 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 96.00 by 0.70. The reading fell from the previous value of 95.90. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 98.59, ranging from 95.30 to 100.80 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 96.67, down from the prior three at 99.27. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.58) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.62). In June readings over the past 3 years, NFIB Business Optimism Index has averaged 94.87.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.71.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC Gold Speculative net positions (Jun 19) and CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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NFIB Business Optimism Index - US
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About NFIB Business Optimism Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NFIB Business Optimism Index is a key economic indicator that measures the confidence and outlook of small business owners in the United States. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and the potential for growth and expansion in the small business sector. This index is based on a survey of thousands of small business owners and covers a wide range of factors such as sales, hiring, and capital spending. It is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to gauge the sentiment and expectations of small business owners, making it a crucial tool for understanding the current and future state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 95.3, consensus 96. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 95.9. Before that (Mar 2026): 95.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.56) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.