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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Non Farm Payrolls climbed to 162K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Non Farm Payrolls climbed to 162K in August 2026, released September 2026, up 141K from July's 21K reading. The print exceeded the 56K consensus by 106K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 72.08K. Over the past 3 months, Non Farm Payrolls averaged 17K, vs 155K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
162
Actual
56
Consensus
21
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±82.42 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 17
Actual: 162
Error: -145
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.91 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Farm Payrolls (United States) was reported at 162 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 56 thousand by 106 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 21 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 71 thousand, ranging from -92 thousand to 172 thousand across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 65 thousand, down from the prior three at 70 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 82 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 83 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Non Farm Payrolls has averaged 109 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 82 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Non Farm Payrolls - US
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About Non Farm Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Non Farm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the total number of paid workers in the United States, excluding farm workers, government employees, and non-profit organization employees. It provides valuable insight into the health of the labor market and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and analysts. The data is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is closely monitored for any changes or trends that may impact the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 162 K, consensus 56 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -23 K. Before that (Jun 2026): 57 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.91) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |