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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Non Farm Payrolls fell to 29K in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Non Farm Payrolls fell to 29K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 104K from August's 133K reading. The reading missed the 90K consensus by 61K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 79.5K. Over the past 3 months, Non Farm Payrolls averaged 69.5K, vs 114.67K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
29
Actual
90
Consensus
133
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±82.42 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 90.75
Actual: 29
Error: +61.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Farm Payrolls (United States) was reported at 29 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 90 thousand by 61 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 133 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 67 thousand, ranging from -92 thousand to 172 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 56 thousand, up from the prior three at 46 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 79 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 81 thousand).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 82 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Non Farm Payrolls - US
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About Non Farm Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Non Farm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the total number of paid workers in the United States, excluding farm workers, government employees, and non-profit organization employees. It provides valuable insight into the health of the labor market and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and analysts. The data is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is closely monitored for any changes or trends that may impact the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 29 K, consensus 90 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 162 K. Before that (Jul 2026): -23 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.83) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |