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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Non Farm Payrolls fell to 57K in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Non Farm Payrolls fell to 57K in June 2026, released July 2026, down 72K from May's 129K reading. The reading missed the 110K consensus by 53K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 95.58K. Over the past 3 months, Non Farm Payrolls averaged 143.5K, vs 66.5K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
57
Actual
110
Consensus
129
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±59.67 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 153.5
Actual: 57
Error: +96.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Farm Payrolls (United States) was reported at 57 thousand in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 110 thousand by 53 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 129 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 66 thousand, ranging from -92 thousand to 172 thousand across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 46 thousand, down from the prior three at 81 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 71 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 69 thousand).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 60 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bowman Speech (Jul 13) and OPEC Meeting (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Non Farm Payrolls - US
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About Non Farm Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Non Farm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the total number of paid workers in the United States, excluding farm workers, government employees, and non-profit organization employees. It provides valuable insight into the health of the labor market and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and analysts. The data is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is closely monitored for any changes or trends that may impact the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 57 K, consensus 110 K. Prior reading (May 2026): 172 K. Before that (Apr 2026): 115 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.76) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -293 | -132.8 | -132.80 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -293 | -132.8 | -132.80 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 95.6 | 94.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 334 | 334.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 103.1 | 128.5 | 139.50 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |