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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Non Farm Payrolls fell to 172K in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Non Farm Payrolls fell to 172K in May 2026, released June 2026, down 7K from April's 179K reading. The print exceeded the 85K consensus by 87K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 100.25K. Over the past 3 months, Non Farm Payrolls averaged 146.5K, vs 38K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
172
Actual
85
Consensus
179
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±39.5 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 85
Actual: 172
Error: -87
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Farm Payrolls (United States) was reported at 172 thousand in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 85 thousand by 87 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 179 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 67 thousand, ranging from -92 thousand to 172 thousand across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 70 thousand, down from the prior three at 78 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 75 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 67 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Non Farm Payrolls has averaged 194 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 40 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Non Farm Payrolls - US
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About Non Farm Payrolls — United States
DEFINITION
Non Farm Payrolls is a key economic indicator that measures the total number of paid workers in the United States, excluding farm workers, government employees, and non-profit organization employees. It provides valuable insight into the health of the labor market and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, policymakers, and analysts. The data is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is closely monitored for any changes or trends that may impact the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 172 K, consensus 85 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 115 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 178 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.