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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Payrolls Private fell to 46K in September 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Nonfarm Payrolls Private fell to 46K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 43K from August's 89K reading. The reading missed the 85K consensus by 39K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 80.17K. Over the past 3 months, Nonfarm Payrolls Private averaged 78.5K, vs 97.33K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 25th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
46
Actual
85
Consensus
89
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±44.63 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 93.5
Actual: 46
Error: +47.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (United States) was reported at 46 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 85 thousand by 39 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 89 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 66 thousand, ranging from -86 thousand to 172 thousand across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 68 thousand, up from the prior three at 28 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 67 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 75 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Nonfarm Payrolls Private has averaged 177 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 45 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Oct 6) and Fed Schmid Speech (Oct 6).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Nonfarm Payrolls Private - US
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About Nonfarm Payrolls Private — United States
DEFINITION
Nonfarm Payrolls Private is a financial indicator that measures the total number of jobs added or lost in the private sector, excluding government jobs, during a specific time period. This data is considered a key indicator of the health and growth of the overall economy, as it reflects the strength of the private sector and its ability to create jobs. Nonfarm Payrolls Private is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it provides valuable insights into the current state and future direction of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 46 K, consensus 85 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 127 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 30 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, October 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 56.5 | 58.7 | 58.75 | Low |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 56 | 58.4 | 58.40 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 72.6 | 72.9 | 73.45 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 55.4 | 55 | 54.95 | High |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 60.9 | 60.3 | 60.05 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 47.8 | 48 | 49.05 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 61.7 | 61.5 | 59.00 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.11 | 4.109 | 4.08 | Low |
| Tuesday, October 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 403.6 | 416.8 | 418.13 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 310.7 | 314.6 | 315.68 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -92.8 | -102 | -102.67 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 45.6 | 44.5 | 45.20 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 7.3 | 6 | 6.00 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 18.06 | 15 | 15.00 | Low | |