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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Payrolls Private fell to 120K in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Nonfarm Payrolls Private fell to 120K in May 2026, released June 2026, down 57K from April's 177K reading. The print exceeded the 85K consensus by 35K. Nonfarm Payrolls Private has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Nonfarm Payrolls Private averaged 154.5K, vs 48K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
120
Actual
85
Consensus
177
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±34.83 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 85
Actual: 120
Error: -35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (United States) was reported at 120 thousand in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 85 thousand by 35 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 177 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 66 thousand, ranging from -86 thousand to 172 thousand across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 69 thousand, up from the prior three at 68 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 71 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 67 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Nonfarm Payrolls Private has averaged 163 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 35 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Nonfarm Payrolls Private - US
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About Nonfarm Payrolls Private — United States
DEFINITION
Nonfarm Payrolls Private is a financial indicator that measures the total number of jobs added or lost in the private sector, excluding government jobs, during a specific time period. This data is considered a key indicator of the health and growth of the overall economy, as it reflects the strength of the private sector and its ability to create jobs. Nonfarm Payrolls Private is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it provides valuable insights into the current state and future direction of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 120 K, consensus 85 K. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 123 K. Before that (Mar 2026): 186 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.