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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Payrolls Private climbed to 127K in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Nonfarm Payrolls Private climbed to 127K in August 2026, released September 2026, up 56K from July's 71K reading. The print exceeded the 45K consensus by 82K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 76.5K. Over the past 3 months, Nonfarm Payrolls Private averaged 39.5K, vs 143K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 57th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
127
Actual
45
Consensus
71
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±41.63 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 17.75
Actual: 127
Error: -109.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (United States) was reported at 127 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 45 thousand by 82 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 71 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 68 thousand, ranging from -86 thousand to 172 thousand across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 69 thousand, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 70 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 77 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Nonfarm Payrolls Private has averaged 94 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 42 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Nonfarm Payrolls Private - US
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About Nonfarm Payrolls Private — United States
DEFINITION
Nonfarm Payrolls Private is a financial indicator that measures the total number of jobs added or lost in the private sector, excluding government jobs, during a specific time period. This data is considered a key indicator of the health and growth of the overall economy, as it reflects the strength of the private sector and its ability to create jobs. Nonfarm Payrolls Private is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it provides valuable insights into the current state and future direction of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 127 K, consensus 45 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 30 K. Before that (Jun 2026): 49 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.55) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |