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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Nonfarm Payrolls Private fell to 49K in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Nonfarm Payrolls Private fell to 49K in June 2026, released July 2026, down 48K from May's 97K reading. The reading missed the 110K consensus by 61K. Nonfarm Payrolls Private has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Nonfarm Payrolls Private averaged 121.5K, vs 77.25K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
49
Actual
110
Consensus
97
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±38.38 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 127.5
Actual: 49
Error: +78.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (United States) was reported at 49 thousand in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 110 thousand by 61 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 97 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 64 thousand, ranging from -86 thousand to 172 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 28 thousand, down from the prior three at 93 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 67 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 70 thousand).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 38 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Nonfarm Payrolls Private - US
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About Nonfarm Payrolls Private — United States
DEFINITION
Nonfarm Payrolls Private is a financial indicator that measures the total number of jobs added or lost in the private sector, excluding government jobs, during a specific time period. This data is considered a key indicator of the health and growth of the overall economy, as it reflects the strength of the private sector and its ability to create jobs. Nonfarm Payrolls Private is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it provides valuable insights into the current state and future direction of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 49 K, consensus 110 K. Prior reading (May 2026): 120 K. Before that (Apr 2026): 123 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |