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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 5.7 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 5.7 in June 2026, down 13.9 from May's 19.6 reading. The reading missed the 14 consensus by 8.3. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.28. Over the past 3 months, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index averaged 15.3, vs 4.87 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.7
Actual
14
Consensus
19.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.35
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 20.05
Actual: 5.7
Error: +14.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 5.70 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 14.00 by 8.30. The reading fell from the previous value of 19.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.86, ranging from -8.70 to 19.60 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8.37, up from the prior three at 3.63. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.67) is lower than the prior year (σ 13.63). In June readings over the past 3 years, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index has averaged -5.43.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.35.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Aug 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - US
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About NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of business activity and sentiment in the manufacturing sector in New York State. It is based on a survey of manufacturers in the region and provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the manufacturing industry. This index is closely watched by economists and investors as it can signal changes in the broader economy and inform business decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5.7, consensus 14. Prior reading (May 2026): 19.6. Before that (Apr 2026): 11.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |