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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NY Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 25.5 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 25.5 in October 2026, up 17.9 from September's 7.6 reading. The print exceeded the 10.3 consensus by 15.2. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 7.99. Over the past 3 months, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index averaged 14.1, vs 12.65 in the prior 3-month window. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is now the highest in 22 months.
Latest Release
25.5
Actual
10.3
Consensus
7.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.8
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 10.91
Actual: 25.5
Error: -14.59
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 25.50 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10.30 by 15.20. The reading rose from the previous value of 7.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.84, ranging from -3.90 to 25.50 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 17.90, up from the prior three at 8.37. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.21) is lower than the prior year (σ 13.92). In October readings over the past 3 years, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index has averaged 8.10.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.80.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - US
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About NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of business activity and sentiment in the manufacturing sector in New York State. It is based on a survey of manufacturers in the region and provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the manufacturing industry. This index is closely watched by economists and investors as it can signal changes in the broader economy and inform business decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 25.5, consensus 10.3. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 7.6. Before that (Aug 2026): 20.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.40) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77.5 | 77.90 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.1 | 7.08 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -107.6 | -107.75 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |