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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 7.6 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 7.6 in September 2026, down 13.0 from August's 20.6 reading. The reading missed the 14.75 consensus by 7.15. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 8.35. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
7.6
Actual
14.75
Consensus
20.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.18
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 19.55
Actual: 7.6
Error: +11.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (United States) was reported at 7.60 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 14.75 by 7.15. The reading fell from the previous value of 20.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 9.36, ranging from -3.90 to 20.60 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 11.30, up from the prior three at 8.83. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.82) is lower than the prior year (σ 13.76). In September readings over the past 3 years, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index has averaged 3.47.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.18.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FOMC Economic Projections (Sep 16) and Fed Interest Rate Decision (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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NY Empire State Manufacturing Index - US
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About NY Empire State Manufacturing Index — United States
DEFINITION
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of business activity and sentiment in the manufacturing sector in New York State. It is based on a survey of manufacturers in the region and provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the manufacturing industry. This index is closely watched by economists and investors as it can signal changes in the broader economy and inform business decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 7.6, consensus 14.75. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 20.6. Before that (Jun 2026): 5.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.56) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |