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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Participation Rate climbed to 61.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Participation Rate climbed to 61.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.2% from August's 61.6% reading. The reading matched the 61.4% consensus. Participation Rate has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Participation Rate averaged 61.5%, vs 61.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 21st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
61.8
Actual
61.4
Consensus
61.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 61.4
Actual: 61.8
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Participation Rate (United States) was reported at 61.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 61.4% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 61.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 61.93%, ranging from 61.4% to 62.5% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 61.6%, down from the prior three at 61.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.39%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.41%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Participation Rate - US
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About Participation Rate — United States
DEFINITION
The participation rate is a financial indicator that measures the percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the level of labor force participation in an economy and can provide insights into the overall health and strength of the job market. A higher participation rate is generally seen as a positive sign of a robust economy, while a lower rate may indicate a weaker job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers to inform decisions related to employment and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 61.8 %, consensus 61.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 61.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 61.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |