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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index YoY held to 3.7% in July 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased August 2026
US PCE Price Index YoY held to 3.7% in July 2026, released August 2026. The reading matched the 3.6% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.05%. Over the past 3 months, PCE Price Index YoY averaged 3.9%, vs 3.22% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.7
Actual
3.6
Consensus
3.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.6
Actual: 3.7
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 3.7% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.6% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.31%, ranging from 2.7% to 4.1% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.83%, up from the prior three at 3.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.53%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In August readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index YoY has averaged 2.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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PCE Price Index YoY - US
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About PCE Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The PCE Price Index YoY is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers over a 12-month period. It is based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is considered a more comprehensive measure of consumer spending compared to other price indices. The YoY (year-over-year) aspect of this indicator provides insight into the overall trend of inflation and can be used to assess the impact of price changes on consumer purchasing power. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it reflects the current state of the economy and can inform decisions related to monetary policy and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.7 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.7 %. Before that (May 2026): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.63) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.95 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -1.12 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.84 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 174.4 | 146.3 | 109.78 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.3 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.433 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.31 | 1.31 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1774 | 1780 | 1785.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 208.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 47.4 | 30.5 | 30.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 206 | 206 | 206.13 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -2.2 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -2.3 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 40 | 49 | 48.00 | Low | |
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.4 | 76.40 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.10 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |