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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index YoY climbed to 4.1% in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased June 2026
US PCE Price Index YoY climbed to 4.1% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.3% from April's 3.8% reading. The reading matched the 4.1% consensus. PCE Price Index YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PCE Price Index YoY averaged 3.37%, vs 2.85% in the prior 3-month window. PCE Price Index YoY is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
4.1
Actual
4.1
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.1
Actual: 4.1
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.79 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 4.1% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 4.1% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.04%, ranging from 2.6% to 4.1% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.57%, up from the prior three at 2.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.54%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16%). In June readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index YoY has averaged 3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bowman Speech (Jul 13) and OPEC Meeting (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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PCE Price Index YoY - US
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About PCE Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The PCE Price Index YoY is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers over a 12-month period. It is based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is considered a more comprehensive measure of consumer spending compared to other price indices. The YoY (year-over-year) aspect of this indicator provides insight into the overall trend of inflation and can be used to assess the impact of price changes on consumer purchasing power. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it reflects the current state of the economy and can inform decisions related to monetary policy and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.1 %, consensus 4.1 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.79) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -293 | -132.8 | -132.80 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -293 | -132.8 | -132.80 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 95.6 | 94.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 334 | 334.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 103.1 | 128.5 | 139.50 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |