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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index YoY fell to 3.7% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased July 2026
US PCE Price Index YoY fell to 3.7% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.4% from May's 4.1% reading. The reading matched the 3.7% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.92%. Over the past 3 months, PCE Price Index YoY averaged 3.95%, vs 3.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.7
Actual
3.7
Consensus
4.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.7
Actual: 3.7
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.76 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 3.7% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.7% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.18%, ranging from 2.6% to 4.1% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.87%, up from the prior three at 2.83%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.55%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.17%). In July readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index YoY has averaged 2.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Aug 18) and Import Prices MoM (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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PCE Price Index YoY - US
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About PCE Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The PCE Price Index YoY is a key economic indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers over a 12-month period. It is based on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is considered a more comprehensive measure of consumer spending compared to other price indices. The YoY (year-over-year) aspect of this indicator provides insight into the overall trend of inflation and can be used to assess the impact of price changes on consumer purchasing power. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it reflects the current state of the economy and can inform decisions related to monetary policy and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.7 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.76) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15.6 | 11 | 15.80 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33 | 34.00 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 231.2 | 151.4 | 162.05 | Medium |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -5.4 | 0.2 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -0.3 | 1.4 | 3.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1808 | 1804.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 212 | 211.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |