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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Pending Home Sales MoM climbed to -2.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Pending Home Sales MoM climbed to -2.3% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 2.5% from June's -4.8% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 2.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.86%. Over the past 3 months, Pending Home Sales MoM averaged -0.8%, vs 0.98% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 23rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.3
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-4.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.18
Actual: -2.3
Error: +2.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Pending Home Sales MoM (United States) was reported at -2.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 2.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.77%, ranging from -5.4% to 4% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.3%, down from the prior three at 0.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.82%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.07%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Pending Home Sales MoM has averaged -2.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Pending Home Sales MoM - US
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About Pending Home Sales MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Pending Home Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a leading economic indicator that measures the change in the number of homes under contract for sale, but not yet closed, during a specific month. This indicator provides valuable insight into the current state of the housing market and can help forecast future trends. A higher percentage of pending home sales MoM indicates a strong demand for homes, while a lower percentage may suggest a slowing housing market. This data is closely monitored by economists, investors, and real estate professionals to gauge the health of the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -2.3 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -5.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |