US Pending Home Sales MoM: November 2025 Report and Macro Implications
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The US Pending Home Sales MoM for November 2025 jumped 1.90%, a sharp acceleration from October’s flat 0.10% reading and surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.50%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks the strongest monthly gain since early 2024, reversing a multi-month stagnation trend. The data covers all four major US regions—Northeast, Midwest, South, and West—highlighting a broad-based recovery in contract signings for existing homes.
Drivers this month
- Mortgage rates eased to an average of 6.10%, down from 6.50% last month, boosting affordability.
- Southern and Western states led with 2.50% and 2.20% gains respectively, reflecting regional economic resilience.
- Inventory constraints persisted but showed slight improvement, supporting more transactions.
Policy pulse
The Federal Reserve’s recent pause in rate hikes and signals of a potential easing cycle have improved financial conditions, indirectly supporting housing demand. Inflation remains above the 2% target at 3.40%, but cooling from last year’s highs reduces pressure on mortgage rates.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: US Treasury 2-year yields fell 8 basis points post-release, while the US Dollar Index softened by 0.30%, reflecting market relief on housing momentum. The S&P 500 SPX rallied 0.70% in the hour following the data, signaling improved risk appetite.
Pending Home Sales serve as a leading indicator for existing home sales and overall housing market health. The 1.90% MoM increase contrasts with the subdued 0.10% in October and the 12-month average of 0.40%, underscoring a meaningful shift in buyer behavior. This uptick aligns with recent improvements in core macroeconomic indicators such as employment and wage growth.
Employment and income trends
US nonfarm payrolls expanded by 210,000 in November, slightly below expectations but consistent with steady job creation. Average hourly earnings rose 0.30% MoM, supporting household purchasing power despite inflation pressures.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Federal Reserve’s steady stance and recent comments on potential rate cuts in 2026 have eased borrowing costs. Mortgage rates, a critical factor for homebuyers, have declined from a peak of 7.10% in mid-2025 to 6.10% currently, improving affordability.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Federal fiscal stimulus remains limited, with no new housing-specific programs announced. However, state-level incentives in high-demand regions like California and Texas continue to support market activity.
Inventory levels remain tight but have improved slightly from a 3.10-month supply to 3.30 months, easing some upward pressure on prices. The median home price growth has slowed to 2.10% YoY, down from 4.50% a year ago, reflecting a cooling but stable market.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in Pending Home Sales, reversing a multi-month lull. The data suggests that easing mortgage rates and improved financial conditions are reigniting buyer interest, potentially leading to stronger existing home sales in the coming months.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US Dollar Index declined 0.30%, while 2-year Treasury yields dropped 8 basis points, signaling market optimism. The S&P 500 SPX gained 0.70%, reflecting improved risk sentiment.
Looking ahead, the Pending Home Sales data suggests a cautiously optimistic housing market trajectory. Three scenarios emerge:
- Bullish (30% probability): Mortgage rates continue to decline below 6%, inventory improves, and consumer confidence rises, pushing Pending Home Sales up 3-4% MoM in early 2026.
- Base (50% probability): Mortgage rates stabilize around 6%, inflation moderates, and sales grow modestly at 1-2% MoM, consistent with November’s momentum.
- Bearish (20% probability): Inflation surprises to the upside, prompting Fed tightening; mortgage rates rise above 6.50%, dampening demand and causing Pending Home Sales to stagnate or decline.
External shocks such as geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and supply chain disruptions remain downside risks. Conversely, potential fiscal stimulus or infrastructure spending could provide upside support.
Policy pulse
The Fed’s communication will be critical. A dovish tilt could further lower mortgage rates, while hawkish surprises risk reversing gains. Market expectations currently price a 40% chance of rate cuts by mid-2026.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The US Dollar Index’s 0.30% drop post-release reflects easing rate hike fears. The Canadian Dollar USDCAD weakened slightly, consistent with improved US housing sentiment reducing safe-haven demand.
November’s 1.90% MoM rise in Pending Home Sales marks a pivotal moment for the US housing market. It signals a potential stabilization after months of uncertainty driven by high mortgage rates and inflation. While risks remain, especially from inflation and geopolitical factors, the data points to improving buyer confidence and financial conditions.
Investors and policymakers should monitor mortgage rate trends, regional disparities, and inflation developments closely. The housing market’s trajectory will influence broader economic growth, consumer spending, and Fed policy decisions in 2026.
In sum, the Pending Home Sales rebound offers a cautiously bullish signal for the US economy, with a balanced view on risks and opportunities ahead.
Key Markets Likely to React to Pending Home Sales MoM
Pending Home Sales data historically impacts several asset classes sensitive to US economic and housing market conditions. The following five symbols are likely to react:
- SPX – The broad US equity index often rallies on positive housing data due to improved economic outlook.
- USDCAD – The Canadian Dollar tends to weaken on US housing strength, reflecting risk-on sentiment.
- DHI – A leading homebuilder stock, sensitive to housing market trends and mortgage rates.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often reacts to shifts in risk appetite linked to macroeconomic data.
- HD – Home Depot, a proxy for housing-related consumer spending, correlates with housing market strength.
Since 2020, Pending Home Sales MoM and the S&P 500 SPX have shown a positive correlation, especially during housing market rebounds. Periods of rising Pending Home Sales often coincide with S&P 500 rallies, reflecting improved economic confidence. For example, the 1.90% surge in November 2025 aligns with a 0.70% S&P 500 gain, reinforcing the link between housing momentum and equity market strength.
FAQs
- What is the significance of the Pending Home Sales MoM data?
- Pending Home Sales MoM measures contract signings for existing homes, serving as a leading indicator for housing market activity and economic health.
- How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?
- The 1.90% increase is the strongest monthly gain since February 2024, reversing a multi-month stagnation and exceeding the 12-month average of 0.40%.
- What are the main risks affecting future Pending Home Sales?
- Key risks include inflation volatility, potential Fed tightening, mortgage rate increases, and geopolitical uncertainties impacting consumer confidence.
Takeaway: The robust 1.90% rise in Pending Home Sales MoM signals a tentative housing market recovery, with implications for monetary policy, financial markets, and economic growth in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 Pending Home Sales MoM reading of 1.90% significantly outperformed October’s 0.10% and the 12-month average of 0.40%. This rebound reverses a three-month plateau and signals renewed contract activity. The South and West regions posted the strongest gains, at 2.50% and 2.20% respectively, while the Northeast and Midwest showed moderate increases of 1.10% and 0.90%.
Compared to historical data, this is the highest monthly increase since February 2024’s 2.00% rise. The last time Pending Home Sales exceeded 1.50% MoM was in early 2023, during a brief period of mortgage rate stabilization.