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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Pending Home Sales MoM fell to -5.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Pending Home Sales MoM fell to -5.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 8.9% from May's 3.5% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 4.9%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.46%. Over the past 3 months, Pending Home Sales MoM averaged 2.23%, vs 0.5% in the prior 3-month window. Pending Home Sales MoM is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
-5.4
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.35
Actual: -5.4
Error: +5.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Pending Home Sales MoM (United States) was reported at -5.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 4.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.96%, ranging from -5.4% to 4% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, down from the prior three at 1.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.66%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.38%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Pending Home Sales MoM has averaged -0.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Pending Home Sales MoM - US
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About Pending Home Sales MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Pending Home Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a leading economic indicator that measures the change in the number of homes under contract for sale, but not yet closed, during a specific month. This indicator provides valuable insight into the current state of the housing market and can help forecast future trends. A higher percentage of pending home sales MoM indicates a strong demand for homes, while a lower percentage may suggest a slowing housing market. This data is closely monitored by economists, investors, and real estate professionals to gauge the health of the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -5.4 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |