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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Pending Home Sales YoY fell to -11.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Pending Home Sales YoY fell to -11.3% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 6.6% from August's -4.7% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 12.3%. Pending Home Sales YoY has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Pending Home Sales YoY averaged -3.45%, vs 2.57% in the prior 3-month window. Pending Home Sales YoY is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-11.3
Actual
1
Consensus
-4.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.53 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.9
Actual: -11.3
Error: +10.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Pending Home Sales YoY (United States) was reported at -11.3% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 12.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of -4.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.95%, ranging from -11.3% to 4.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.07%, down from the prior three at 2.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.32%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.79%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Pending Home Sales YoY has averaged -3.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Pending Home Sales YoY - US
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About Pending Home Sales YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Pending Home Sales YoY (year-over-year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of homes under contract for sale compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and can help forecast future trends. A higher YoY percentage indicates a strong demand for homes, while a lower percentage may suggest a slowing market. Investors, real estate professionals, and policymakers often use this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -11.3 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -4.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.37 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |