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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Pending Home Sales YoY fell to -0.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Pending Home Sales YoY fell to -0.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 5.1% from May's 4.8% reading. The reading missed the 2.3% consensus by 2.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.82%. Over the past 3 months, Pending Home Sales YoY averaged 2.3%, vs -0.6% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 60th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
2.3
Consensus
4.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.81 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.68
Actual: -0.3
Error: +3.97
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Pending Home Sales YoY (United States) was reported at -0.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.3% by 2.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.23%, ranging from -0.9% to 4.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.57%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.04%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.34%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Pending Home Sales YoY has averaged -1.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.81%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Pending Home Sales YoY - US
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About Pending Home Sales YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Pending Home Sales YoY (year-over-year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of homes under contract for sale compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and can help forecast future trends. A higher YoY percentage indicates a strong demand for homes, while a lower percentage may suggest a slowing market. Investors, real estate professionals, and policymakers often use this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus 2.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |