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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Pending Home Sales YoY climbed to 3.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Pending Home Sales YoY climbed to 3.2% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 4.3% from March's -1.1% reading. The print exceeded the -0.5% consensus by 3.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.11%. Over the past 3 months, Pending Home Sales YoY averaged -0.77%, vs 1.1% in the prior 3-month window. Pending Home Sales YoY is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
-1.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.95
Actual: 3.2
Error: -4.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Pending Home Sales YoY (United States) was reported at 3.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.5% by 3.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.61%, ranging from -2.8% to 3.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.67%, up from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.98%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.51%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Pending Home Sales YoY has averaged -2.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Pending Home Sales YoY - US
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About Pending Home Sales YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Pending Home Sales YoY (year-over-year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of homes under contract for sale compared to the same period in the previous year. This indicator provides valuable insights into the current state of the housing market and can help forecast future trends. A higher YoY percentage indicates a strong demand for homes, while a lower percentage may suggest a slowing market. Investors, real estate professionals, and policymakers often use this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus -0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -1.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.77) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.