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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Personal Spending MoM fell to 0.5% in April 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Personal Spending MoM fell to 0.5% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from March's 1.0% reading. The reading matched the 0.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.37%. Over the past 3 months, Personal Spending MoM averaged 0.37%, vs 0.35% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 75th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.5
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.55
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Personal Spending MoM (United States) was reported at 0.5% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.5% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.36%, ranging from -0.1% to 0.6% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, down from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.23%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Personal Spending MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Waller Speech (May 31) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun 1).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Personal Spending MoM - US
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About Personal Spending MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Personal Spending MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in consumer spending on goods and services on a monthly basis. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the economy and consumer confidence, as well as potential future trends. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact various sectors of the economy, such as retail, housing, and manufacturing. A positive change in Personal Spending MoM indicates a healthy economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.