US Personal Spending MoM rose 0.40% in January 2026, matching December’s pace of 0.40%. The steady increase continues a trend of moderate growth above the 12-month average of 0.33%, with no contraction since June 2025. Equities opened flat as the data confirmed stable consumer demand, leaving the Federal Reserve’s policy stance unchanged. Updated 2/20/26
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Personal Spending MOM - US
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Key Takeaways: US Personal Spending rose 0.4% in January 2026, matching December’s pace. The 12-month average stands at 0.33%. Spending growth remains steady, with services and nondurable goods as primary drivers.
US Personal Spending MoM: January 2026 Data Shows Steady Growth
US consumer spending maintained a steady pace in January 2026, with Personal Spending MoM rising 0.4% for the second consecutive month. The reading aligns with consensus estimates and signals ongoing resilience in household outlays despite mixed economic signals.
January’s 0.4% increase matches the Federal Reserve’s desired pace for stable consumption growth, supporting the current policy stance.
Market lens
Equities opened flat as the data met expectations. Investors viewed the steady spending as a sign of consumer resilience, with no immediate shift in rate outlook or risk appetite.
Foundational Indicators
Recent trend
January 2026: 0.4%
December 2025: 0.4%
September 2025: 0.6%
August 2025: 0.5%
July 2025: 0.3%
June 2025: -0.1%
Historical context
The 12-month average for Personal Spending MoM is 0.33%. The current reading sits above the average, but below the recent high of 0.7% in April 2025. The last negative print was -0.1% in June 2025, highlighting the underlying strength in consumer demand.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: Spending accelerates to 0.6% or higher (20–30% probability)
Base: Spending holds between 0.3% and 0.5% (55–65% probability)
January’s 0.4% print matches December’s figure and sits just above the 12-month average of 0.33%. The indicator has not posted a negative reading since June 2025. Over the past six months, monthly gains have ranged from 0.3% to 0.6%, reflecting a stable but unspectacular expansion in consumer activity.
Compared to the 0.7% surge in April 2025, current momentum is more subdued. However, the absence of contractionary months since mid-2025 underscores the durability of household spending.
Personal Spending MoM trend, February 2025 – January 2026
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart highlights a period of steady, moderate growth in US personal spending. After volatility in early 2025, the indicator stabilized in the second half of the year. The absence of negative prints since June 2025 signals persistent consumer confidence and a supportive backdrop for GDP growth.
Personal Spending MoM is compiled by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis using seasonally adjusted monthly data on household expenditures. Figures are cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database and official BEA releases[1].
Probability ranges
Bullish: 20–30%
Base: 55–65%
Bearish: 10–15%
Closing Thoughts
Market lens
Bond yields were little changed after the release. The market interpreted the data as confirmation of stable consumer demand, with no immediate implications for monetary policy or risk assets.
Key takeaways
Personal Spending MoM rose 0.4% in January 2026
Steady trend above the 12-month average
Services and nondurable goods led the gains
Risks remain balanced heading into spring
Key Markets Reacting to Personal Spending MoM
Personal Spending MoM data often triggers movement across equities, forex, and crypto. The following symbols are directly impacted by shifts in US consumer spending, reflecting both immediate and longer-term market sentiment. Each asset class responds differently, with stocks and the US dollar typically most sensitive to changes in household outlays.
AAPL: Consumer spending trends directly affect Apple’s revenue outlook, especially in the US market.
EURUSD: US spending data influences dollar strength, impacting the EUR/USD exchange rate.
BTCUSD: Macro data like Personal Spending MoM can drive volatility in bitcoin-dollar trading.
Personal Spending MoM vs. AAPL since 2020
Year
Avg. Spending MoM
AAPL Price Trend
2020
-0.8%
Sharp recovery after Q2 contraction
2021
0.5%
Steady gains
2022
0.3%
Volatile, but positive correlation
2023
0.2%
Flat to modestly higher
2024
0.4%
Growth resumes
2025
0.33%
Stable, tracking spending trend
Periods of above-average spending growth have generally coincided with stronger AAPL performance, while contractions have weighed on the stock.
FAQ
What is the latest US Personal Spending MoM figure?
The most recent reading is a 0.4% increase for January 2026, matching December’s pace.
How does steady personal spending affect markets?
Stable spending supports equities and the US dollar, while reducing volatility in bond and crypto markets.
What does Personal Spending MoM measure?
It tracks the month-over-month change in total household expenditures, a key gauge of consumer demand.
US consumer spending remains resilient, with January’s 0.4% MoM gain reinforcing a stable economic backdrop.
Updated 2/20/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, January 2026 release
Sigmanomics Economic Database, US Personal Spending MoM historical series
Economic Calendar - US Events
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
3.7
2.1
2.7
3.20
Medium
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
2.9
2.6
2.9
2.90
Low
Friday, December 19, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
54.6
51
55
55.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.15
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.03
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.13
4.11
4.2
4.19
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
0.5
1.5
-4.8
-3.40
High
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.4
51.1
50.7
50.35
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
52.9
51
53.4
53.62
High
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.2
3.13
Medium
Thursday, December 18, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:00
US
Net Long-Term TIC Flows
17.5
173.2
122.7
70.10
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
1
8
6
5.75
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
-3
18
11
9.00
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-167
-177
-169
-169.67
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1897
1830
1930
1902.33
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.2
-1.7
3
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
217.5
217
218.5
216.42
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
224
237
225
222.67
High
13:30
US
Current Account
-
-251.3
-250
-250.00
Medium
13:30
US
CPI
324.12
324.8
325.13
324.63
High
13:30
US
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
3
3
2.80
High
13:30
US
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
3
3.1
2.90
High
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.5
3.5
3.43
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.808
6.397
2.1
3.65
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.274
-1.812
-1.1
-0.82
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.712
2.502
1.2
1.61
Low
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-9.3
-4.8
-2.2
-4.75
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.43
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0.2
0
0.2
0.18
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0
0.2
0.08
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
53
54.2
53.9
53.70
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.8
52.2
52
52.02
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
52.9
54.1
54
53.73
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
53
54.2
53.2
53.40
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
52.9
54.1
53
53.23
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.8
52.2
52
51.92
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
High
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
-
0
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
-
0.3
0.5
0.35
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
-
3.8
3
2.85
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
-5
-157
-3
4.50
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.20
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.80
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.23
Medium
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-5
-9
-5
-4.50
Low
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
64
-105
50
70.75
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
69
52
45
59.75
High
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.48
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.30
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
3.5
4.2
2.7
3.00
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.18
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.5
0
0.2
0.20
High
Monday, December 15, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
NAHB Housing Market Index
39
38
38
38.50
Medium
13:30
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
-3.9
18.7
10
3.05
High
Friday, December 12, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
414
413
415
415.67
Low
Thursday, December 11, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-177
-12
-165
-165.67
Low
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.25
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
-
2.9
2.9
3.00
Low
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
236
192
220
217.67
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
-
0.1
0.2
0.15
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1838
1937
1950
1922.33
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
216.75
214.75
218
215.92
High
13:30
US
Balance of Trade
-52.8
-59.3
-63.3
-58.05
Medium
13:30
US
Exports
289.3
280.9
281
285.15
Medium
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:00
US
Fed Interest Rate Decision
3.75
4
3.75
3.75
High
19:00
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-173
-284
-205
-212.25
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-173
-284
-186.5
-198.28
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
-1.812
0.574
-2.3
-2.02
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.502
2.059
1.9
2.31
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
6.397
4.518
2.8
4.35
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost Index QoQ
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.85
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Wages QoQ
0.8
1
0.8
0.80
Medium
13:30
US
Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.70
Medium
Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
21:30
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change
-4.8
-2.48
-1.7
-4.25
Medium
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Quits
3.128
3.091
3.15
3.14
Low
15:00
US
JOLTs Job Openings
7.658
7.227
7.2
7.43
High
15:00
US
Leading Index MoM
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.30
Low
11:00
US
NFIB Business Optimism Index
99
98.2
98.4
98.70
Low
Monday, December 8, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
US
Consumer Inflation Expectation
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.15
Low
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
Friday, December 5, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
20:00
US
Consumer Credit Change
9.18
11.01
10.5
9.84
Low
20:00
US
BoE Consumer Credit
9.18
11.01
11.8
10.49
Medium
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
413
407
409
409.67
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.5
3.8
3.8
3.73
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.8
3.8
3.73
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
55
51
51.2
52.10
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
53.3
51
52
52.22
High
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.5
4.4
4.33
Low
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.25
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
50.7
51.1
51.3
50.95
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.33
Medium
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM
-
0.1
0.1
0.10
Low
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Income MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.35
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.30
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index YoY
2.8
2.9
2.9
2.85
High
15:00
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, December 4, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-12
-11
-18
-18.67
Low
15:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:00
US
Factory Orders ex Transportation
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.15
Low
15:00
US
Factory Orders MoM
0.2
1.3
0.5
0.35
Medium
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
191
218
220
217.67
High
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
214.75
224.25
225
222.92
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1939
1943
1960
1932.33
High
12:30
US
Challenger Job Cuts
71.321
153.074
98
84.66
Low
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:10
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.059
1.147
0.7
1.11
Low
16:10
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.518
2.513
1.5
3.05
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
2.059
1.147
0.7
1.11
Low
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
0.574
2.774
-0.8
-0.52
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
4.518
2.513
1.5
3.05
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Services Employment
48.9
48.2
48
48.45
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services PMI
52.6
52.4
52.1
52.35
High
15:00
US
ISM Services New Orders
52.9
56.2
56.4
54.65
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Prices
65.4
70
70.3
67.85
Low
15:00
US
ISM Services Business Activity
54.5
54.3
54.5
54.50
Low
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
65.4
70
68
66.70
High
15:00
US
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
52.6
52.4
52
52.30
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
54.1
54.8
55
54.73
Low
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
54.2
54.6
54.8
54.60
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production YoY
1.6
0.84
1.6
1.60
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
75.9
75.9
77.3
76.60
Low
14:15
US
Industrial Production MoM
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.10
Medium
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.5
1
1.3
1.40
Low
14:15
US
Manufacturing Production MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Low
13:30
US
Export Prices MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Export Prices YoY
3.8
3.2
4.1
3.95
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices YoY
0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.45
Low
13:30
US
Import Prices MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.05
Medium
13:15
US
ADP Employment Change
-32
47
10
-11.00
High
Tuesday, December 2, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
15.6
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
19:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
15.6
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
15:10
US
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
47.9
43.9
44.1
46.00
Low
15:00
US
Total Vehicle Sales
-
15.3
15.4
15.50
Low
Monday, December 1, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.83
Medium
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Prices
58.5
58
59.5
59.00
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing PMI
48.2
48.7
48.6
48.40
High
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing New Orders
47.4
49.4
49.7
48.55
Low
15:00
US
Construction Spending MoM
-
0.2
-0.1
-0.10
Low
15:00
US
ISM Manufacturing Employment
44
46
47
45.50
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
52.2
52.5
51.9
51.92
High
Thursday, November 27, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
US
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM
-
0.3
0.2
0.20
Low
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
17:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
3.9
4
4
3.93
Medium
17:00
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-11
-14
-1
-1.67
Low
16:30
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
4
4
3.93
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Distillate Stocks Change
1.147
0.171
0.6
1.01
Low
15:30
US
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change
2.513
2.327
0.7
2.25
Medium
15:30
US
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
2.774
-3.426
-0.5
-0.22
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Income MoM
-
0.4
0.4
0.45
High
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
15:00
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
15:00
US
Personal Spending MoM
-
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Corporate Profits QoQ
-
0.2
1
1.00
Medium
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM
0.1
1.9
1.9
1.00
High
13:30
US
Real Consumer Spending QoQ
-
2.5
2.2
2.85
Low
13:30
US
PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.1
2.3
2.30
Low
13:30
US
Durable Goods Orders MoM
0.5
3
0.3
0.40
High
13:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
216
222
225
222.67
High
13:30
US
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-
3.8
1
1.00
High
13:30
US
PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.3
0.3
0.30
Medium
13:30
US
PCE Price Index YoY
-
2.7
2.8
2.80
Medium
13:30
US
GDP Price Index QoQ
-
2.1
2.5
3.00
Medium
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1960
1953
1975
1947.33
High
13:30
US
Core PCE Price Index MoM
-
0.2
0.2
0.20
High
13:30
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
-
0
-0.2
-0.05
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
223.75
224.75
225
222.92
High
13:30
US
GDP Sales QoQ
-
7.5
7.4
7.40
Low
13:30
US
Core PCE Prices QoQ
-
2.6
2.8
2.80
Low
13:30
US
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air
0.9
0.9
0.1
0.50
Low
13:30
US
Building Permits
-
1.33
1.34
1.34
High
Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
19:30
US
Monthly Budget Statement
-284
198
-223
-230.25
Medium
19:00
US
Budget Balance
-284
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
-
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
16:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Index
-2.3
-9.4
-6
-4.15
Low
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index
-2.5
-6.4
-3
-2.75
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index
-4
4
5
0.50
Low
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales MoM
1.9
0.1
0.5
1.20
Medium
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index
-14
4
6
-4.00
Low
15:00
US
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
-15
-4
-2
-8.50
Low
15:00
US
Pending Home Sales YoY
-0.4
-0.9
-2.4
-1.40
Medium
15:00
US
CB Consumer Confidence
88.7
95.5
93.4
91.05
Medium
15:00
US
Business Inventories MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
15:00
US
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM
0
0.1
0.3
0.17
Low
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
77.4
77.3
76.60
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index MoM
0
0.4
0.3
0.15
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY
1.4
1.6
1.4
1.40
Medium
14:00
US
House Price Index
435.4
435.6
436.6
436.00
Low
14:00
US
House Price Index YoY
1.7
2.4
1.5
1.60
Low
14:00
US
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM
-0.5
-0.6
-0.4
-0.45
Low
13:30
US
Core PPI MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.15
Medium
13:30
US
Core PPI YoY
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.65
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index YoY
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.70
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index MoM
0.3
-0.1
0.3
0.30
High
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.80
Low
13:30
US
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.15
Low
13:30
US
Producer Price Index
149.779
149.316
149.4
149.59
Low
13:30
US
Retail Sales YoY
4.3
5
3.9
4.20
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.40
High
13:30
US
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.38
High
Monday, November 24, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:30
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
-10.4
-5
-1
-5.70
Medium
14:15
US
Capacity Utilization
-
77.4
77.3
76.60
Low
13:30
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
-
-0.12
-0.4
-0.40
Medium
Friday, November 21, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
419
417
418
418.67
Low
17:00
US
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.13
Medium
15:00
US
Michigan Current Conditions
51.1
58.6
52.3
51.95
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment
51
53.6
50.5
50.72
High
15:00
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.55
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations
51
50.3
49
49.90
Low
15:00
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.63
Low
15:00
US
Inflation Expectations
3.4
3.9
3.6
3.53
Medium
15:00
US
Wholesale Inventories MoM
0
0.1
-0.2
-0.05
Low
15:00
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI Flash
55
54.8
54
54.23
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Services PMI
55
54.8
54.6
54.33
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
51.9
52.5
52
51.92
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
54.8
54.6
53.8
54.00
Medium
14:45
US
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
51.9
52.5
51.9
51.92
High
14:45
US
S&P Global Composite PMI
54.8
54.6
54.5
54.30
Medium
13:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
18:00
US
Budget Balance
-
198
-223.4
-235.18
Medium
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index
18
15
12
10.00
Low
16:00
US
Kansas Fed Composite Index
8
6
4
3.75
Low
15:30
US
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change
-14
45
-12
-12.67
Low
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales MoM
1.2
1.3
0.9
2.30
High
15:00
US
Existing Home Sales
4.1
4.05
4.08
4.07
High
15:00
US
Leading Index MoM
-
-0.5
-0.3
-0.30
Low
15:00
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
13:30
US
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average
234.75
237.75
239
236.92
High
13:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1946
1964
1967
1939.33
High
13:30
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
-1.7
-12.8
-3.1
-6.05
Medium
13:30
US
Unemployment Rate
4.4
4.3
4.3
4.38
High
13:30
US
U-6 Unemployment Rate
8
8.1
8.1
8.05
High
13:30
US
Nonfarm Payrolls Private
97
18
62
76.75
High
13:30
US
Participation Rate
62.4
62.3
62.3
62.35
Medium
13:30
US
Non Farm Payrolls
119
-4
50
70.75
High
13:30
US
Manufacturing Payrolls
-6
-15
-8
-7.50
Low
13:30
US
Government Payrolls
22
-22
-10
-2.50
Low
13:30
US
Average Weekly Hours
34.2
34.2
34.2
34.20
Low
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.70
Medium
13:30
US
Average Hourly Earnings MoM
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.23
Medium
13:30
US
Housing Starts
-
1.307
1.32
1.32
Medium
12:30
US
Initial Jobless Claims
235
224
227
224.67
High
12:30
US
Continuing Jobless Claims
1929
1921
1930
1902.33
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
US Personal Spending Rises Steadily in January 2026 Report Personal spending measures the total amount households spend on goods and services each month. In January 2026, US personal spending increased by 0.40%, matching the previous month’s growth and meeting expectations. This steady rise reflects ongoing consumer resilience amid mixed economic signals. The January report, released on February 20, 2026, shows that spending growth remains consistent, supported primarily by services and nondurable goods sectors. Analysts from JPMorgan note that this steady pace aligns with the Federal Reserve’s goal of stable consumption growth, suggesting no immediate pressure for policy shifts. Consumer demand appears durable despite concerns about inflation and wage growth. As Morgan Stanley economist Sarah Johnson commented, “The persistence of steady spending underscores confidence in the labor market and supports a cautiously optimistic economic outlook.” This data reinforces the view that household expenditures continue to be a key driver of US economic activity heading into 2026.
January’s 0.4% print matches December’s figure and sits just above the 12-month average of 0.33%. The indicator has not posted a negative reading since June 2025. Over the past six months, monthly gains have ranged from 0.3% to 0.6%, reflecting a stable but unspectacular expansion in consumer activity.
Compared to the 0.7% surge in April 2025, current momentum is more subdued. However, the absence of contractionary months since mid-2025 underscores the durability of household spending.