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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 6.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 6.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.8% from April's 5.7% reading. The reading matched the 6.4% consensus. Producer Price Index YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 4.47%, vs 2.95% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
6.5
Actual
6.4
Consensus
5.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.37 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 6.8
Actual: 6.5
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (United States) was reported at 6.5% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 6.4% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.8%, ranging from 2.6% to 6.5% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.3%, up from the prior three at 2.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.44%) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.23%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.37%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Aug 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - US
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About Producer Price Index YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The US Producer Price Index YoY rose to 6.500% in June, beating the 6.400% estimate. This marks an increase from May’s 6.000%, indicating accelerating inflation pressures at the producer level. Markets will closely watch upcoming Federal Reserve communications for signals on monetary policy adjustments. Updated 6/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 6.5 %, consensus 6.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.61) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.05 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 56.7 | 56 | 56.80 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.20 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.20 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 55.4 | 50.7 | 54 | 54.70 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 54.8 | 47.7 | 54.9 | 54.85 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 55.2 | 49.5 | 54 | 54.60 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |