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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM fell to -0.2% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM fell to -0.2% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.4% from May's 0.2% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.5%. Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM averaged 0.48%, vs 0.32% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM is now the lowest in 21 months.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.33
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM (United States) was reported at -0.2% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.22%, ranging from -0.2% to 0.6% across 16 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, down from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM has averaged 0.08%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM - US
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About Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of goods held in inventory by retail businesses, excluding the automotive sector. It provides valuable insights into the health of the retail industry and can be used to forecast future sales and economic trends. A positive change in this indicator suggests an increase in consumer demand and a potential boost to the economy, while a negative change may indicate a slowdown in consumer spending. This data is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the state of the retail sector and the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.46) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |