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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM climbed to 0.7% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM climbed to 0.7% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 1.2% from June's -0.5% reading. The reading matched the 0.7% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.31%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM averaged 0.1%, vs 0.45% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM is now the highest in 21 months.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.7
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.69
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM (United States) was reported at 0.7% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.7% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.26%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.7% across 17 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.33%, up from the prior three at 0.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.29%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.2%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM has averaged 0.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Inventories MoM (Sep 16) and NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM - US
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About Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM is a monthly financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of goods held in inventory by retail businesses, excluding the automotive sector. It provides valuable insights into the health of the retail industry and can be used to forecast future sales and economic trends. A positive change in this indicator suggests an increase in consumer demand and a potential boost to the economy, while a negative change may indicate a slowdown in consumer spending. This data is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers to make informed decisions about the state of the retail sector and the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.46) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |