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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index climbed to 11 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index climbed to 11 in August 2026, up 3 from July's 8 reading. The print exceeded the 7 consensus by 4. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index averaged 5.5, vs 4 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 90th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
11
Actual
7
Consensus
8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 9.83
Actual: 11
Error: -1.17
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (United States) was reported at 11.00 in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 7.00 by 4.00. The reading rose from the previous value of 8.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.09, ranging from -20.00 to 16.00 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 7.33, up from the prior three at 0.33. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.01) is higher than the prior year (σ 7.84). In August readings over the past 3 years, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index has averaged -3.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17) and Building Permits MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index - US
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About Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index is a key economic indicator that measures the monthly change in the volume of shipments for manufacturing companies in the Richmond region. This index provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the manufacturing sector in this important economic hub, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses alike. A positive reading indicates an increase in shipments, while a negative reading suggests a decline, making it a crucial tool for assessing the overall economic climate and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 11, consensus 7. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 8. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 174.4 | 146.3 | 109.78 | Medium |