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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index fell to 3 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index fell to 3 in June 2026, down 13 from May's 16 reading. The reading missed the 9 consensus by 6. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -6.08. Over the past 3 months, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index averaged 7, vs -6.67 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3
Actual
9
Consensus
16
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±12.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 17.5
Actual: 3
Error: +14.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (United States) was reported at 3.00 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 9.00 by 6.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 16.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -5.91, ranging from -20.00 to 16.00 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.67, up from the prior three at -9.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.27) is higher than the prior year (σ 8.22). In June readings over the past 3 years, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index has averaged -3.00.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 12.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Jul 17) and Building Permits (Jul 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index - US
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About Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index is a key economic indicator that measures the monthly change in the volume of shipments for manufacturing companies in the Richmond region. This index provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the manufacturing sector in this important economic hub, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses alike. A positive reading indicates an increase in shipments, while a negative reading suggests a decline, making it a crucial tool for assessing the overall economic climate and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3, consensus 9. Prior reading (May 2026): 16. Before that (Apr 2026): -2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |