Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index climbed to 0 in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index climbed to 0 in October 2026, up 5 from September's -5 reading. The print exceeded the -7 consensus by 7. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.83. Over the past 3 months, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index averaged 3, vs 9 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 73rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0
Actual
-7
Consensus
-5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±9.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -9.5
Actual: 0
Error: -9.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (United States) was reported at 0.00 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -7.00 by 7.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -5.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.09, ranging from -14.00 to 16.00 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.00, down from the prior three at 9.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.42) is comparable than the prior year (σ 8.82). In October readings over the past 3 years, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index has averaged -1.33.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 9.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index - US
Loading chart data...
About Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index is a key economic indicator that measures the monthly change in the volume of shipments for manufacturing companies in the Richmond region. This index provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the manufacturing sector in this important economic hub, and is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses alike. A positive reading indicates an increase in shipments, while a negative reading suggests a decline, making it a crucial tool for assessing the overall economic climate and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0, consensus -7. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 0. Before that (Oct 2026): 0.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.37 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |