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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index climbed to 9 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
US Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index climbed to 9 in March 2026, up 17 from February's -8 reading. The print exceeded the -13 consensus by 22. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -3. Over the past 3 months, Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index averaged -5.5, vs -2 in the prior 3-month window. Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
9
Actual
-13
Consensus
-8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -13.5
Actual: 9
Error: -22.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (United States) was reported at 9.00 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of -13.00 by 22.00. The reading rose from the previous value of -8.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.11, ranging from -8.00 to 9.00 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.67, up from the prior three at -2.00. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.19) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.28).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.50.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Monthly Budget Statement (Jul 13) and Budget Balance (Jul 13).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index - US
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About Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index — United States
DEFINITION
The Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index is a key economic indicator that measures the overall performance of the services sector in the Richmond region. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of businesses in industries such as healthcare, finance, and professional services. This index is widely used by economists, policymakers, and investors to gauge the strength of the local economy and make informed decisions. With its timely and accurate data, the Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index is a reliable tool for assessing the economic landscape and predicting future trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 9, consensus -13. Prior reading (Feb 2026): -8. Before that (Jan 2026): -3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 96 | 94.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 335.3 | 335.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 335.1 | 335.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |