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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Wholesale Inventories MoM climbed to 0.6% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Wholesale Inventories MoM climbed to 0.6% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from August's 0.5% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.7%. Over the past 3 months, Wholesale Inventories MoM averaged 0.8%, vs 0.68% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.55
Actual: 0.6
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories MoM (United States) was reported at 0.6% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.43%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.3% across 16 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.6%, down from the prior three at 0.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.43%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Wholesale Inventories MoM has averaged 0.28%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Nov 1) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Wholesale Inventories MoM - US
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About Wholesale Inventories MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Wholesale Inventories MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers over a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insights into the level of demand for goods in the wholesale sector and can be used to forecast future economic trends. A positive change in wholesale inventories indicates an increase in demand, while a negative change suggests a decrease in demand. This information is crucial for businesses, investors, and policymakers in making informed decisions about production, pricing, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77.5 | 77.90 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.1 | 7.08 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -107.6 | -107.75 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |