Wholesale inventories are a key gauge of supply chain health and business sentiment. The flat 0.00% MoM reading in November 2025 contrasts with the -0.20% drop expected by analysts and follows a September dip of -0.20%. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly change has been roughly 0.05%, indicating a generally stable but cautious inventory accumulation pattern.

Drivers this month

• Stabilization in durable goods orders limited inventory drawdowns.
• Improved logistics and shipping times eased supply chain bottlenecks.
• Retailers cautiously managing stock ahead of holiday season demand.

Policy pulse

The flat reading aligns with the Federal Reserve’s recent messaging on moderating inflation pressures. Wholesale inventories growth slowing to zero suggests businesses are neither overstocking nor aggressively destocking, consistent with a balanced demand outlook.

Market lens

In the immediate aftermath, the US dollar index (USD) showed mild strength, while 2-year Treasury yields edged up by 3 basis points, reflecting a nuanced market interpretation of stable inventories amid ongoing monetary tightening concerns.

Wholesale inventories interact closely with core macroeconomic indicators such as industrial production, retail sales, and GDP growth. The flat MoM reading in November contrasts with the 0.20% rise in August and the 0.10% upticks in July and September, signaling a pause after a period of inventory rebuilding.

Inventory trends vs. industrial production

Industrial production grew by 0.30% in October 2025, outpacing inventory growth and suggesting that manufacturers are meeting demand without excessive stockpiling. This dynamic supports a stable supply-demand balance.

Retail sales and consumer demand

Retail sales increased 0.40% in October, indicating steady consumer spending. The lack of inventory buildup suggests wholesalers are aligning supply closely with retail demand, avoiding excess stock that could pressure margins.

Inflation and price pressures

Producer Price Index (PPI) data showed a 0.10% rise in October, a deceleration from prior months. Stable inventories may help contain input cost pressures, reducing the risk of pass-through inflation.

Examining the trend, inventories rose 0.10% in August and September before the September decline. The current flat reading suggests businesses are maintaining leaner inventories, possibly to avoid tying up capital amid tighter financial conditions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The S&P 500 (SPX) dipped 0.10% post-release, reflecting investor caution. The USD/JPY currency pair strengthened by 0.15%, consistent with a risk-off tilt amid stable but unspectacular inventory data.

Looking ahead, wholesale inventories will be a key barometer for supply chain resilience and inflation dynamics as the US economy navigates a complex macro environment.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Inventories rise 0.20%-0.30% MoM as demand strengthens into 2026.
• Supply chains normalize further, supporting economic growth above 2% annualized.
• Inflation pressures ease, allowing the Fed to pause rate hikes.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inventories remain flat or grow modestly (0.00%-0.10%) as demand and supply balance.
• GDP growth holds near 1.50%, with inflation gradually moderating.
• Monetary policy remains data-dependent with cautious Fed communication.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inventories decline by 0.20% or more, signaling demand weakness or supply disruptions.
• Economic growth slows below 1%, raising recession risks.
• Financial conditions tighten further, pressuring credit markets and risk assets.

Policy pulse

The Federal Reserve will closely monitor inventory trends as part of its inflation and growth assessment. Stable inventories reduce the risk of supply-driven inflation spikes but warrant vigilance if demand softens.

The November 2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM report signals a cautious equilibrium in US supply chains. The flat reading contrasts with recent volatility and suggests businesses are managing inventories prudently amid mixed demand signals and tighter financial conditions.

Macro risks remain balanced, with upside potential from stronger demand and downside risks from geopolitical tensions and financial tightening. Investors and policymakers should watch upcoming inventory data alongside retail sales, industrial production, and inflation metrics to gauge economic momentum.

Overall, the data supports a moderate growth outlook with inflation pressures likely to ease gradually, contingent on stable supply chains and resilient consumer spending.

Key Markets Likely to React to Wholesale Inventories MoM

Wholesale inventories data influences a range of markets sensitive to economic growth and supply chain conditions. Equity indices, currency pairs, and interest rate-sensitive assets typically respond to shifts in inventory trends, reflecting changing growth and inflation expectations.

• SPX: The S&P 500 index often reacts to inventory data as a proxy for economic health and corporate earnings outlook.
• USDJPY: This currency pair is sensitive to US growth signals and risk sentiment shifts triggered by inventory reports.
• TSLA: Tesla’s supply chain and production cycles make it responsive to wholesale inventory trends.
• BTCUSD: Bitcoin often moves inversely to risk-off shifts prompted by weaker inventory data.
• EURUSD: The euro-dollar pair reflects relative economic strength and monetary policy divergence influenced by US inventory trends.

Extras: Wholesale Inventories vs. SPX Since 2020

Since 2020, the correlation between US Wholesale Inventories MoM and the S&P 500 (SPX) has averaged around 0.45, indicating a moderate positive relationship. Periods of rising inventories often coincide with equity rallies, reflecting growth optimism. For example, in Q2 2021, a 0.20% average monthly inventory increase aligned with a 10% SPX gain. Conversely, sharp inventory declines in late 2022 preceded market pullbacks. This relationship underscores inventories’ role as a leading indicator for equity market sentiment.

FAQs

What is the significance of the US Wholesale Inventories MoM report?

The report measures monthly changes in wholesale inventories, providing insight into supply chain health and business sentiment, which influence inflation and growth forecasts.

How does the November 2025 reading compare to past months?

The flat 0.00% reading matches October’s level, following a September dip of -0.20%, indicating stabilization after recent volatility.

What are the key risks affecting wholesale inventories?

Risks include supply chain disruptions, shifts in consumer demand, monetary tightening, and geopolitical tensions that can alter inventory management strategies.

Takeaway: The November 2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM report signals a cautious but stable supply chain environment, supporting a moderate growth outlook amid balanced inflation risks.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.