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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Wholesale Inventories MoM climbed to 1.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Wholesale Inventories MoM climbed to 1.3% in July 2026, released September 2026, up 0.9% from June's 0.4% reading. The reading matched the 1.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.54%. Over the past 3 months, Wholesale Inventories MoM averaged 0.6%, vs 0.68% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
1.3
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.17 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.5
Actual: 1.3
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Wholesale Inventories MoM (United States) was reported at 1.3% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.3% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.34%, ranging from -0.5% to 1.3% across 14 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.93%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Wholesale Inventories MoM has averaged 0.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 16) and Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Wholesale Inventories MoM - US
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About Wholesale Inventories MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Wholesale Inventories MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers over a specific period of time. This indicator provides valuable insights into the level of demand for goods in the wholesale sector and can be used to forecast future economic trends. A positive change in wholesale inventories indicates an increase in demand, while a negative change suggests a decrease in demand. This information is crucial for businesses, investors, and policymakers in making informed decisions about production, pricing, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.391 | -1.6 | -3.43 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.269 | -1 | -0.95 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |