Uruguay’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.11% in February 2026, marking its lowest level in over a decade. The print undershot both consensus estimates and the central bank’s midpoint target, extending a steady disinflation trend since mid-2025.
Uruguay Inflation Rate YoY: February 2026 Update
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
- February 2026 inflation rate: 3.11% YoY
- January 2026: 3.46% YoY
- 12-month average: 4.08%
- Lowest since at least June 2025 (5.05%)
- Consensus estimate: 3.30%
- Central bank target midpoint: 4.5%
Drivers this month
- Food prices: -0.12pp
- Transport: -0.09pp
- Housing: +0.04pp
Policy pulse
The reading undershot the Banco Central del Uruguay’s 3–6% target band, coming in below the midpoint for the third consecutive month.Foundational Indicators
Market lens
Bond yields dipped as the inflation print surprised to the downside. The peso held steady, reflecting confidence in the central bank’s disinflation strategy. February’s 3.11% YoY figure extends a clear downward trend from 4.25% in October 2025 and 4.09% in December 2025. The 12-month average now stands at 4.08%, with the last six months showing uninterrupted declines.Historical context
Compared to August 2025’s 4.53% and June’s 5.05%, the current rate marks a sharp deceleration. The last time inflation hovered near 3% was over a decade ago, underscoring the magnitude of the recent shift.Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: Uruguay’s inflation rate has moved decisively lower for seven straight months. The current level is not only the lowest in years but also well below the 12-month average, suggesting entrenched disinflation. The trend’s persistence points to a structural shift rather than a temporary dip.
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Inflation stabilizes below 3%, opening room for policy easing.
- Base (50–60%): Inflation hovers between 3–3.5% in coming months, tracking near the lower end of the target band.
- Bearish (10–20%): External shocks or supply disruptions push inflation back above 4%.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include global commodity price rebounds and currency volatility. Downside risks stem from weak domestic demand and continued monetary restraint.Methodology and sources
Figures are sourced from Uruguay’s National Institute of Statistics and the Sigmanomics database[1]. The YoY inflation rate reflects changes in the national consumer price index, measured monthly.Closing Thoughts
Uruguay’s inflation rate has not only undershot expectations but also broken decisively below its historical average. The central bank’s credibility has strengthened, with markets rewarding the steady hand on policy. Sustained disinflation, if maintained, could reshape the country’s macroeconomic landscape in 2026.Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate YoY
Uruguay’s inflation data ripples across global markets, influencing both local and international assets. Fixed income markets respond most directly, with sovereign bond yields sensitive to inflation surprises. Currency traders watch the peso for signs of policy shifts, while select equities and crypto assets may also react to changing inflation dynamics.
- AAPL — U.S. tech stocks often benefit from global disinflation, as lower rates support valuations.
- EURUSD — The euro-dollar pair reflects shifts in global inflation trends and risk appetite.
- BTCUSD — Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge is tested when official rates fall sharply.
| Year | UY Inflation Rate YoY (%) | AAPL (YoY % Change) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 9.41 | 81.0 |
| 2021 | 7.96 | 34.0 |
| 2022 | 8.29 | -26.8 |
| 2023 | 7.09 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | 5.82 | 49.0 |
| 2025 | 4.25 | 54.7 |
Since 2020, Uruguay’s inflation rate has trended lower, while AAPL’s annual returns have remained robust, especially as global inflation pressures eased.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the latest Uruguay Inflation Rate YoY for February 2026?
- The latest YoY inflation rate for Uruguay is 3.11% for February 2026, the lowest reading in over a decade.
- How does the February 2026 inflation figure compare to previous months?
- February’s 3.11% is down from January’s 3.46% and well below the 12-month average of 4.08%.
- What is the focus of this Uruguay inflation report?
- This report analyzes Uruguay’s February 2026 YoY inflation rate, its drivers, historical context, and market impact.
Uruguay’s inflation rate has reached a multi-year low, reinforcing the country’s disinflation momentum.
Updated 3/4/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 3/4/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics database, Uruguay National Institute of Statistics, official inflation releases, accessed 3/4/26.
Compared to the central bank’s 3–6% target band, the latest result sits at the lower end, reinforcing the effectiveness of recent monetary tightening. The gap between actual inflation and the 12-month average has widened, signaling a persistent downward trajectory.