Uruguay’s November 2025 Unemployment Rate: A Data-Driven Macro Analysis
Uruguay’s unemployment rate rose to 7.30% in November 2025, up from 6.90% last month. This marks a reversal after a steady decline since mid-2025. The increase signals emerging labor market pressures amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. Fiscal discipline and stable financial markets provide some buffer, but geopolitical risks and structural challenges could weigh on growth and employment in 2026.
Table of Contents
The latest unemployment rate for Uruguay (UY) was released on November 20, 2025, showing a rise to 7.30% from 6.90% in October. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects labor market conditions across the country and provides insight into macroeconomic trends as Uruguay navigates a complex global environment.
Drivers this month
- Labor market slack increased by 0.40 percentage points MoM, reversing a four-month downward trend.
- Service sector layoffs and slower hiring in manufacturing contributed to the uptick.
- Seasonal adjustments and a slight slowdown in export demand also played roles.
Policy pulse
The 7.30% unemployment rate remains above the 6.50% pre-pandemic average but below the 8.10% peak recorded in February 2025. The Central Bank of Uruguay’s recent monetary tightening aims to curb inflation, but higher borrowing costs may dampen job creation in the near term.
Market lens
Following the release, the UYU currency depreciated modestly by 0.30% against the USD, reflecting concerns about slower growth. The 2-year government bond yield rose 12 basis points, signaling market anticipation of prolonged monetary restraint.
Unemployment is a key macroeconomic indicator linked closely to GDP growth, inflation, and fiscal health. Uruguay’s 7.30% rate contrasts with a 6.90% reading last month and a 7.00% average over the past 12 months, indicating a recent softening in labor market conditions.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Uruguay has raised policy rates by 75 basis points since August 2025 to combat inflation, which remains above the 3% target. Tighter financial conditions have increased borrowing costs for businesses, slowing investment and hiring.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Uruguay’s government maintains a disciplined fiscal stance, with a projected budget deficit of 2.50% of GDP in 2025. Public spending on social programs supports vulnerable workers, but limited fiscal space restricts stimulus options amid rising unemployment.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility and trade tensions in South America have dampened export growth. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties in key trading partners add downside risks to Uruguay’s economic outlook.
This chart signals a potential inflection point in Uruguay’s labor market. The upward trend in unemployment after months of decline suggests emerging economic pressures. Monitoring this trend will be critical for policymakers balancing inflation control and growth support.
Drivers this month
- Service sector job losses due to reduced domestic demand.
- Manufacturing hiring slowed amid weaker export orders.
- Seasonal factors and labor force participation changes.
Policy pulse
The unemployment increase coincides with the Central Bank’s rate hikes, reflecting a lagged impact of tighter credit conditions on employment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The UYU/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.30%, while 2-year bond yields rose 12 basis points, indicating market caution about near-term growth prospects.
Looking ahead, Uruguay’s labor market faces mixed prospects. The interplay of monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and external conditions will shape unemployment dynamics in 2026.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Global trade recovers, boosting exports and manufacturing jobs.
- Inflation moderates, allowing monetary easing in H2 2026.
- Unemployment falls below 6.50% by year-end.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Moderate growth with persistent inflation pressures.
- Monetary policy remains restrictive, slowing job creation.
- Unemployment stabilizes around 7.00–7.50% through 2026.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- External shocks deepen, weakening exports and investment.
- Fiscal constraints limit stimulus; inflation remains sticky.
- Unemployment rises above 8.00%, prolonging labor market weakness.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Uruguay’s labor market faces structural challenges including skill mismatches and informality. Long-term reforms in education and labor regulation are needed to improve resilience and reduce unemployment volatility.
Uruguay’s November 2025 unemployment rate increase to 7.30% signals emerging headwinds amid tighter monetary policy and external uncertainties. While fiscal prudence and stable financial markets provide some support, risks from global shocks and structural labor market issues remain. Policymakers must balance inflation control with growth support to avoid prolonged unemployment pressures.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is closely watched by currency, bond, and equity markets in Uruguay and the region. Key symbols include:
- BBVA – A major bank sensitive to credit demand shifts linked to employment trends.
- USDUYU – The USD/Uruguayan Peso pair reacts to economic data impacting monetary policy.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin often moves inversely to risk sentiment affected by macroeconomic shifts.
- ITUB – Brazilian bank with regional exposure, sensitive to economic cycles.
- EURUSD – Global risk sentiment gauge influenced by emerging market data.
FAQ
- What is the current unemployment rate in Uruguay?
- The latest figure is 7.30% as of November 2025, up from 6.90% in October.
- How does the unemployment rate affect Uruguay’s economy?
- Higher unemployment can reduce consumer spending, slow growth, and increase fiscal pressures.
- What are the main risks to Uruguay’s labor market?
- Risks include global trade shocks, inflation persistence, and structural labor market issues.
Key takeaway: Uruguay’s rising unemployment rate signals emerging economic challenges amid tighter monetary policy and external uncertainties. Vigilant policy calibration is essential to support labor market recovery.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
Uruguay’s unemployment data influences several markets, including banking stocks, currency pairs, and cryptocurrencies. The selected symbols below historically track labor market shifts due to their exposure to credit cycles, currency valuation, and risk sentiment.
- BBVA – Banking sector sensitivity to credit demand and economic growth.
- USDUYU – Directly reflects Uruguay’s economic health and monetary policy.
- BTCUSD – Proxy for global risk appetite impacted by macroeconomic data.
- ITUB – Regional bank with exposure to economic cycles in South America.
- EURUSD – Global risk barometer influenced by emerging market trends.
A mini-chart analysis shows a clear inverse correlation: periods of rising unemployment in Uruguay coincide with UYU depreciation against the USD. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to domestic labor market health and investor confidence.
FAQ
- What is the latest unemployment rate for Uruguay?
- The rate is 7.30% as of November 2025, reflecting a recent increase from 6.90% in October.
- How does the unemployment rate impact Uruguay’s monetary policy?
- Higher unemployment may pressure the Central Bank to ease rates, but inflation concerns currently limit this option.
- What external factors influence Uruguay’s unemployment?
- Global trade volatility, commodity prices, and geopolitical risks affect export demand and job creation.
Final takeaway: Uruguay’s labor market is at a crossroads, with rising unemployment highlighting the need for balanced policies amid external and structural challenges.
Uruguay’s unemployment rate rose to 7.30% in November 2025, up from 6.90% in October and above the 12-month average of 7.00%. This marks a reversal after steady improvement since the 8.10% peak in February 2025.
The chart below illustrates the monthly unemployment trend over the past year, highlighting the recent uptick amid tightening monetary policy and external headwinds.