Vietnam’s inflation rate YoY for November 2025 was reported at 3.25%, down from 3.38% in October and below the 3.50% consensus forecast, according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure reflects a slight easing in price pressures after a peak of 3.63% in February 2025. Over the past year, inflation has fluctuated between 2.91% and 3.63%, averaging 3.11%. The current reading remains within the central bank’s target range of 3.00% ± 1.00%, signaling controlled inflationary dynamics amid ongoing economic recovery.

Drivers this month

• Food prices stabilized, contributing 0.10 pp to inflation, down from 0.25 pp in October.
• Energy costs eased slightly, subtracting 0.05 pp, reflecting lower global oil prices.
• Core inflation components, including housing and transport, remained steady, adding 0.20 pp.

Policy pulse

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continues to maintain a cautious monetary stance. Inflation remains within the target corridor, allowing for gradual policy normalization without aggressive tightening. The SBV’s benchmark interest rate has held steady at 6.00%, balancing inflation control with support for credit growth and investment.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Vietnamese dong (VND) appreciated modestly by 0.15% against the USD in the first hour post-release, reflecting market relief at the softer inflation print. Local bond yields on the 2-year tenor declined by 5 basis points, signaling reduced inflation risk premiums.

Vietnam’s inflation trajectory is closely linked to core macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, wage dynamics, and external trade balances. The country’s GDP growth for Q3 2025 was robust at 6.80% YoY, supporting consumer demand but also exerting mild upward pressure on prices. Wage growth averaged 5.50% YoY, contributing to domestic cost-push inflation.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The SBV’s monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant. Credit growth accelerated by 12% YoY in October, supporting economic activity. Inflation expectations remain anchored, with breakeven inflation rates at 3.30% for the next 12 months. The VND’s stability against major currencies supports import price moderation.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Vietnam’s fiscal stance remains prudent, with the 2025 budget deficit projected at 4.20% of GDP, slightly below the previous year’s 4.50%. Government spending focuses on infrastructure and social welfare, supporting growth without overheating the economy. Tax reforms aim to broaden the base, enhancing revenue resilience amid inflationary pressures.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity price volatility, especially in oil and food, poses upside inflation risks. Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region add uncertainty to supply chains. However, Vietnam’s diversified trade partnerships and export strength mitigate some external vulnerabilities.

Drivers this month

• Food and beverage inflation contribution dropped from 0.25 pp to 0.10 pp.
• Energy inflation eased by 0.05 pp due to lower crude oil prices.
• Core services inflation remained steady, supporting the baseline inflation level.

Policy pulse

The inflation print supports the SBV’s current policy stance, which targets a 3% inflation midpoint with a ±1% tolerance. The data suggests no immediate need for rate hikes but warrants close monitoring of wage and commodity price trends.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The VN-Index dipped 0.30% briefly after the release but recovered as investors digested the softer inflation data. The VND’s modest appreciation and lower bond yields reflect market confidence in inflation management.

Looking ahead, Vietnam’s inflation outlook balances between supportive domestic demand and external uncertainties. The SBV’s inflation target remains credible, but risks persist from wage growth, commodity price shocks, and geopolitical tensions.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global commodity prices stabilize or decline, easing cost pressures.
• Supply chain improvements reduce input costs.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth without inflation spikes.
• Inflation averages 2.80%–3.00% in H1 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation remains near current levels, fluctuating between 3.00% and 3.50%.
• Moderate wage growth and stable commodity prices maintain price pressures.
• SBV adjusts policy gradually if inflation deviates beyond target.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Commodity price spikes and supply disruptions push inflation above 4.00%.
• Wage pressures accelerate, feeding into core inflation.
• SBV forced into aggressive tightening, risking growth slowdown.

Vietnam’s November 2025 inflation rate of 3.25% reflects a stable but watchful macroeconomic environment. The slight easing from October’s print suggests inflation pressures are manageable, supported by prudent monetary and fiscal policies. However, external risks and structural factors require ongoing vigilance. The SBV’s balanced approach aims to sustain growth while anchoring inflation expectations. Market reactions indicate confidence but highlight sensitivity to future data releases. Investors and policymakers should monitor wage trends, commodity prices, and geopolitical developments closely to navigate the inflation outlook effectively.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY

Vietnam’s inflation rate influences a range of financial markets, including equities, currency, bonds, and commodities. Key tradable symbols historically correlated with inflation dynamics include the VN-Index for equity sentiment, USDVND for currency stability, and energy-related assets sensitive to commodity price shifts. Monitoring these markets provides insight into inflation expectations and policy impacts.

• VNINDEX – Vietnam’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
• USDVND – The USD/VND currency pair, reflecting inflation-driven currency movements.
• USDCNH – Chinese yuan offshore pair, impacting regional trade and inflation spillovers.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge and risk sentiment barometer.
• PLTR – Palantir Technologies, linked to data analytics and market intelligence, indirectly reflecting macro trends.

Insight: Inflation Rate vs. VNINDEX Since 2020

Since 2020, Vietnam’s inflation rate and the VNINDEX have shown a moderate inverse correlation during periods of inflation spikes. For example, in early 2025, inflation peaks coincided with temporary equity market pullbacks. However, sustained inflation within the target range has supported steady equity gains. This dynamic underscores the importance of inflation control in maintaining investor confidence and market stability.

FAQs

What is the current Inflation Rate YoY for Vietnam?

The latest inflation rate YoY for Vietnam is 3.25% as of November 2025, slightly below the previous month’s 3.38%.

How does Vietnam’s inflation compare historically?

Inflation has ranged between 2.91% and 3.63% over the past year, with the current figure near the 12-month average of 3.11%.

What are the main risks to Vietnam’s inflation outlook?

Key risks include commodity price volatility, wage growth pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties impacting supply chains.

Final Takeaway: Vietnam’s inflation remains well-managed within target, supporting steady economic growth amid external uncertainties. Vigilant policy and market monitoring will be essential to sustain this balance.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.