Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.8 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.8 in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1 from July's 46.8 reading. The reading matched the 47 consensus. ABSA Manufacturing PMI has now declined for 4 consecutive months. ABSA Manufacturing PMI is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
45.8
Actual
47
Consensus
46.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.75
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 45.9
Actual: 45.8
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ABSA Manufacturing PMI (South Africa) was reported at 45.80 in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 47.00 by 1.20. The reading fell from the previous value of 46.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.24, ranging from 40.50 to 52.20 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 47.80, down from the prior three at 48.37. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.49) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.18). In September readings over the past 3 years, ABSA Manufacturing PMI has averaged 46.30.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/ZAR, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.75.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Sep 23) and Inflation Rate YoY (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
ABSA Manufacturing PMI - ZA
Loading chart data...
About ABSA Manufacturing PMI — South Africa
DEFINITION
The ABSA Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in South Africa. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the country's manufacturing industry, serving as a key tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. With its timely and accurate data, the ABSA Manufacturing PMI is an essential tool for tracking the economic activity and trends in the manufacturing sector of South Africa.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 45.8, consensus 47. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 46.8. Before that (May 2026): 50.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.46) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | ZA | Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.65 | Low | |
| 11:00 | ZA | Retail Sales YoY | 1.6 | -3 | -2.70 | Low | |