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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.7 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.7 in September 2026, released October 2026, up 4.9 from August's 45.8 reading. The reading matched the 48.8 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 47.88. Over the past 3 months, ABSA Manufacturing PMI averaged 46.3, vs 51.7 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 75th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50.7
Actual
48.8
Consensus
45.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.22
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 47.95
Actual: 50.7
Error: -2.75
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ABSA Manufacturing PMI (South Africa) was reported at 50.70 in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 48.80 by 1.90. The reading rose from the previous value of 45.80. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 47.09, ranging from 40.50 to 50.80 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.77, down from the prior three at 49.07. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.30) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.09). In October readings over the past 3 years, ABSA Manufacturing PMI has averaged 51.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.23.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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ABSA Manufacturing PMI - ZA
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About ABSA Manufacturing PMI — South Africa
DEFINITION
The ABSA Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in South Africa. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the country's manufacturing industry, serving as a key tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. With its timely and accurate data, the ABSA Manufacturing PMI is an essential tool for tracking the economic activity and trends in the manufacturing sector of South Africa.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 50.7, consensus 48.8. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 45.8. Before that (Jul 2026): 46.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.46) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | ZA | Private Sector Credit YoY | 6.23 | 7.47 | 7.5 | 6.87 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.2 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.95 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |