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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.8 from April's 52.6 reading. The reading matched the 49.4 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 47.48. Over the past 3 months, ABSA Manufacturing PMI averaged 50.8, vs 45.53 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 74th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50.8
Actual
49.4
Consensus
52.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.75
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 50.6
Actual: 50.8
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ABSA Manufacturing PMI (South Africa) was reported at 50.80 in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 49.40 by 1.40. The reading fell from the previous value of 52.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.01, ranging from 40.50 to 52.20 across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 49.07, up from the prior three at 43.73. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.62) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.41). In June readings over the past 3 years, ABSA Manufacturing PMI has averaged 45.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.75.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Jun 17) and Inflation Rate YoY (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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ABSA Manufacturing PMI - ZA
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About ABSA Manufacturing PMI — South Africa
DEFINITION
The ABSA Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in South Africa. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the country's manufacturing industry, serving as a key tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions. The index is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers, and a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. With its timely and accurate data, the ABSA Manufacturing PMI is an essential tool for tracking the economic activity and trends in the manufacturing sector of South Africa.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 50.8, consensus 49.4. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 52.6. Before that (Mar 2026): 49.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bearish USD, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.