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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Gold Production YoY fell to -4.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Gold Production YoY fell to -4.3% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 3.9% from April's -0.4% reading. The print exceeded the -5.0% consensus by 0.7%. Gold Production YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Gold Production YoY averaged 8.45%, vs 2.15% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-4.3
Actual
-5
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -3.88
Actual: -4.3
Error: +0.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.85 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gold Production YoY (South Africa) was reported at -4.3% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.11%, ranging from -6% to 17.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.2%, up from the prior three at -1.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.99%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.5%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Gold Production YoY has averaged -3.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gold Production YoY - ZA
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About Gold Production YoY — South Africa
DEFINITION
Gold Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of gold produced by a company or country over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the growth or decline in gold production and can provide valuable insights into the performance and profitability of the gold industry. It is often used by investors and analysts to make informed decisions about investing in gold-related assets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -4.3 %, consensus -5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 17.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.85) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | ZA | Balance of Trade | 17.75 | 4.44 | 32 | 24.88 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | ZA | ABSA Manufacturing PMI | 47.3 | 49 | 51.95 | Low | |