Gold Production Yoy - ZA Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
South Africa Gold Production YoY
5.9
Actual
-4
Consensus
-3.6
Previous
South Africa’s Gold Production YoY surged to 5.90%, sharply beating the -4.00% estimate and reversing October’s -3.60% contraction. This marks a clear expansion phase after months of decline, signaling improved operational conditions and stronger global demand. Looking ahead, sustained growth depends on navigating monetary tightening and geopolitical risks, with market sentiment already reflecting renewed confidence. Updated 11/13/25
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South Africa’s Gold Production YoY Surges 5.90% in November 2025: A Macro-Economic Analysis
South Africa’s gold production rebounded sharply to 5.90% YoY in November 2025, reversing a prolonged contraction. This beat estimates of -4.00% and follows a -3.60% decline in October. The recovery signals easing operational constraints and improved global demand. However, risks from geopolitical tensions and domestic policy uncertainty remain. Monetary tightening and fiscal pressures could moderate growth. Market sentiment showed immediate strength in the ZAR and mining equities. Structural challenges persist, but the outlook is cautiously optimistic.
South Africa’s gold production YoY growth surged to 5.90% in November 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This marks a sharp turnaround from October’s -3.60% decline and significantly outperforms the market consensus estimate of -4.00%. The rebound follows a volatile year marked by operational disruptions, labor unrest, and fluctuating global demand.
Drivers this month
Improved mining output due to better equipment availability and fewer strikes.
Higher global gold prices incentivizing increased production.
Recovery in export logistics easing supply chain bottlenecks.
Policy pulse
The production increase comes amid a tightening monetary policy stance by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), which has raised rates to combat inflation near 6.50%. Fiscal policy remains cautious, with government budget deficits narrowing but public debt still elevated. These factors create a mixed environment for mining investment.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The South African rand (ZAR) strengthened 0.70% against the USD within the first hour of the release, while mining stocks such as ANG rallied 3.20%. This reflects renewed investor confidence in the sector’s near-term prospects.
Gold production is a critical component of South Africa’s mining sector, which accounts for roughly 8% of GDP and 15% of export earnings. The 5.90% YoY growth in November contrasts with the average contraction of -3.30% over the past 12 months, highlighting a significant recovery phase.
Historical comparisons
November 2025’s 5.90% rise is the strongest monthly YoY gain since March 2024, when production grew 6.10%.
The previous six months averaged a -3.80% decline, reflecting ongoing operational challenges.
Compared to the 2023 annual average of -1.20%, the current rebound signals a potential structural shift.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The SARB’s benchmark repo rate currently stands at 7.25%, up 125 basis points since early 2025. Higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs for mining companies, but the recent production surge suggests operational efficiencies and price incentives are offsetting these headwinds.
Fiscal policy & government budget
South Africa’s 2025 fiscal budget targets a deficit reduction to 4.50% of GDP, down from 5.20% in 2024. Mining royalties and export taxes remain stable, supporting government revenues. However, ongoing infrastructure deficits and regulatory uncertainty pose risks to sustained production growth.
November 2025’s gold production YoY growth of 5.90% sharply outpaces October’s -3.60% and the 12-month average of -3.30%. This reversal is the most pronounced since the early 2025 rebound in March (6.10%). The chart below illustrates the volatile trajectory over the past year, with production swinging between contraction and modest growth.
The recent uptick aligns with higher global gold prices, which averaged $1,950 per ounce in October-November 2025, up 7% from the previous quarter. This price support has encouraged miners to ramp up output despite tighter financial conditions.
Figure 1: South Africa Gold Production YoY (%) – Nov 2024 to Nov 2025 (Source: Sigmanomics database)
This chart highlights a strong upward trend in gold production after a prolonged slump. The November print signals a potential inflection point, suggesting operational and market conditions are improving. However, volatility remains elevated, indicating sensitivity to external shocks and domestic policy shifts.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The ZAR/USD exchange rate rallied 0.70%, while the ANG mining stock surged 3.20%. Short-term gold futures (XAUUSD) rose 1.10%, reflecting optimism about supply stability.
Looking ahead, South Africa’s gold production faces a mix of opportunities and risks. The recent rebound could mark the start of a sustained recovery if global demand remains robust and domestic challenges ease.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Continued global gold price strength above $1,900/oz.
Resolution of labor disputes and improved mining infrastructure.
Stable or easing monetary policy supporting investment.
Production growth averaging 4–6% YoY through 2026.
Base scenario (50% probability)
Gold prices stabilize near current levels.
Moderate operational improvements offset by regulatory hurdles.
Monetary tightening persists, limiting capital expenditure.
Production growth averaging 1–3% YoY in 2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Gold prices fall below $1,800/oz due to global shocks.
Renewed labor unrest and infrastructure failures.
Fiscal tightening reduces government support.
Production contracts by 2–4% YoY in 2026.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in global trade and currency markets, could disrupt export flows. Additionally, domestic political uncertainty around mining regulations remains a key risk factor.
South Africa’s gold production YoY growth of 5.90% in November 2025 marks a significant recovery from recent declines. This rebound is supported by higher gold prices, operational improvements, and easing supply chain constraints. However, monetary tightening, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical risks temper the outlook.
Investors and policymakers should monitor global gold market trends, domestic labor relations, and regulatory developments closely. The sector’s performance will remain a bellwether for South Africa’s broader economic health and export resilience.
Key Markets Likely to React to Gold Production YoY
Gold production data in South Africa strongly influences mining equities, currency markets, and commodity futures. Key symbols historically tracking this indicator include:
ANG – AngloGold Ashanti, a major South African gold miner, directly impacted by production changes.
ZARUSD – The South African rand’s exchange rate versus the USD, sensitive to mining export performance.
BHP – Global mining giant with exposure to South African operations.
BTCEUR – Bitcoin’s price in euros, often inversely correlated with gold as a risk asset.
EURUSD – Euro to USD exchange rate, reflecting broader global risk sentiment affecting gold prices.
Insight: Gold Production vs. ANG Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, South Africa’s gold production YoY and AngloGold Ashanti’s stock price have shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.68). Periods of production growth coincide with rallies in ANG shares, underscoring the company’s sensitivity to output trends. The November 2025 production surge aligns with a 3.20% jump in ANG’s stock, reinforcing this relationship.
FAQs
What does the recent gold production YoY increase mean for South Africa’s economy?
The 5.90% YoY increase signals a rebound in mining output, boosting export revenues and supporting GDP growth amid challenging macro conditions.
How does monetary policy affect gold production in South Africa?
Tighter monetary policy raises borrowing costs for miners, potentially limiting investment, but higher gold prices can offset these effects by improving profitability.
What are the main risks to sustained growth in gold production?
Key risks include labor unrest, regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure bottlenecks, and adverse global economic or geopolitical shocks.
Key takeaway: South Africa’s gold production is rebounding strongly, but sustaining growth depends on navigating monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical headwinds.
Sources
Sigmanomics database, South Africa Gold Production YoY, November 2025 release.
South African Reserve Bank, Monetary Policy Review, November 2025.
International Monetary Fund, South Africa Country Report, 2025.
World Gold Council, Gold Market Trends, Q4 2025.
Bloomberg, Mining Sector Equity Performance, November 2025.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Economic Calendar - ZA Events
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
3.2
1.7
1
1.73
Low
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
110.2
111.5
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
111.5
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Friday, October 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
-
109.1
110
109.80
Low
Thursday, October 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.6
1.6
-1.7
-1.30
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-1.2
1.6
1.3
0.33
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.6
-3.5
-1.7
-1.20
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.3
-1
1.8
0.68
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.9
-0.8
-0.3
0.12
Low
Monday, October 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.63
63.21
63.5
63.69
Low
Thursday, October 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
51
50.5
50.7
50.68
Low
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.08
43.68
44
44.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.8
43.6
51
50.80
Low
Monday, September 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
5.63
17.07
15.5
15.16
Medium
11:20
ZA
Budget Balance
-19.4
-79.95
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.95
3.5
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, September 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
2.8
4.2
4
3.73
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.28
Low
Wednesday, September 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, September 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8
8.25
8
8.00
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.5
11.75
11.5
11.50
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
5.5
-31.8
6
0.85
Low
Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2
4.1
3.5
4.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
1.6
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.23
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.42
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-5
-10
-10
-8.17
Low
Thursday, September 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-1.4
-3.6
1.1
-0.02
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.5
-12.6
-10
-9.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.9
-1.7
-0.8
-0.38
Low
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
4.8
5
4.8
4.63
Low
Tuesday, September 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
2.1
-0.4
-1
-0.60
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.7
-5.5
0.7
-0.27
Low
Friday, September 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
63.21
62.27
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, September 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-64.6
-106.9
-150
-150.45
Low
Wednesday, September 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
38
35
37
38.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.5
49.3
50.5
50.48
Low
Tuesday, September 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.3
0.5
1.6
1.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
0
0.4
0.33
Medium
Monday, September 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
43.59
44.23
45
45.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
52.4
53
52.80
Low
Friday, August 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
17.61
24.19
18
17.66
Medium
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-79.95
38.55
-150
-129.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.5
4.27
4.4
4.45
Low
Thursday, August 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.2
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.2
-0.3
0.1
0.02
Low
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.20
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.38
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
5.1
5
4.92
Medium
Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
-1
0.6
0.13
Low
Thursday, August 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-31.8
-15.3
-20
-25.15
Low
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.6
-0.2
-0.1
0.07
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
4.1
1.1
0.4
1.13
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109.1
109
110
109.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
109
107.8
108.2
108.00
Low
Tuesday, August 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
33.5
32.9
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.384
8.226
8.3
8.35
Low
09:00
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.6
-9
-12
-11.50
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.5
1.3
-0.8
-1.92
Low
09:00
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-1.6
0.1
-1
-0.58
Low
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.5
-3.6
1.3
1.70
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-5.2
-1.2
-0.9
-1.87
Low
Wednesday, August 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.27
62.1
62.5
62.69
Low
Monday, August 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.3
49.2
49.7
49.68
Low
Thursday, August 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.23
40.07
42
42.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
52.4
45.7
46
45.80
Low
Wednesday, July 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
24.23
19.96
16
15.66
Medium
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Budget Balance
38.55
-12.78
15
35.70
Low
Monday, July 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.27
3.89
4
4.05
Low
Thursday, July 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
-0.28
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.43
Low
Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.2
5.1
5.02
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
Tuesday, July 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1
2.4
1.7
1.23
Low
Thursday, July 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.6
2.9
4
-1.15
Low
Wednesday, July 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
0.8
0.7
-1.2
-0.47
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.7
0.5
-1
-0.83
Low
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-0.6
4.9
3.2
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-3.2
5.2
2
2.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.6
0.8
-1
-0.58
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-9
-1.7
-1.4
-0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0
1.4
1.7
0.58
Low
Friday, July 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:30
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5
5.3
5.5
5.33
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.1
62.09
62
62.19
Low
Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
50.4
50.2
50.18
Low
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:05
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.07
37.11
47.3
47.45
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
45.7
43.8
49.5
49.30
Low
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
20.09
9.68
15
14.66
Medium
11:00
ZA
Budget Balance
-12.78
-78.05
-50
-29.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.26
3.9
3.7
3.75
Low
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
5.1
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.12
Low
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-12
-15
-18
-16.17
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
2.4
-1.1
-0.8
-1.27
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
2.4
-7.8
-8.5
-13.65
Low
Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.12
Medium
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
0.8
-4.4
1.7
2.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-1.7
-4.3
-3.9
-3.40
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.7
-4.8
0.9
-0.22
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
5.3
-6.5
-2
-2.97
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
5.2
-2.5
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
107.8
108.9
115
114.80
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
108.9
114.7
113.8
113.60
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.09
61.8
61.4
61.59
Low
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-84.6
-162.9
-70
-70.45
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
35
30
27
28.50
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.4
50.3
49.8
49.78
Low
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
0.5
1.4
0.6
0.42
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.03
Medium
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
37.11
38.06
40
40.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.8
54
51
50.80
Low
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
10.47
9.16
3.5
3.16
Medium
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.75
6.85
6.5
6.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.9
5.18
5
5.05
Low
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
11:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-78.05
2.07
-30
-9.30
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
1.1
0.2
0.12
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
5.1
4.6
4.5
4.23
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.9
4.9
4.83
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.8
1
1.00
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.22
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.48
Low
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-1.9
1.3
1.3
0.83
Low
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-7.8
-8.1
-12
-17.15
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.3
-0.7
2.5
3.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1
1
1.17
Low
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.9
32.1
32.3
32.68
Medium
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-5.8
10.3
-3
-4.12
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-4.5
-5
-8
-7.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
8.226
7.895
7.9
7.95
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-5
5.3
-1.8
-1.38
Low
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
-6.4
4
0.4
-0.57
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-2.2
-1
0.7
1.10
Low
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.3
48.4
51
50.98
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:45
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
38.172
44.235
43
43.15
Low
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
7.27
13.34
10
9.66
Medium
09:30
ZA
Budget Balance
2.07
20.78
-30
-9.30
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.18
3.32
4.8
4.85
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.85
5.71
5.5
5.57
Low
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
1.1
0.5
0.3
0.22
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.03
Low
Tuesday, April 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
1.7
-0.2
-0.3
-0.77
Low
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-17.6
-13.5
-18
-23.15
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-3.2
1.2
1.37
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.8
-2
-1.8
-1.07
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.7
1.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.6
5.4
5.32
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.9
5
4.7
4.63
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.8
1
0.3
0.30
Medium
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
4.1
2.9
3.5
2.53
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-0.3
0.4
0.4
0.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.6
-12.7
-14
-13.50
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
114.7
111.8
111.60
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
5
-0.4
1.2
1.62
Low
09:30
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
114.7
112.3
112
111.80
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
9.9
-2.8
3.5
2.38
Low
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.32
61.65
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
48.4
50.8
50.3
50.28
Low
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:20
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.237
44.749
48
48.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
49.2
51.7
51
50.80
Low
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.04
-9.69
8.6
8.26
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.5
4.7
4.9
4.63
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.5
0.1
0.9
0.82
Low
09:00
ZA
Budget Balance
20.78
-54.66
-2.7
18.00
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
5.71
6.61
5.9
5.97
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.32
3.16
3.12
3.17
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.97
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Consumer Confidence
-15
-17
-15
-13.17
Low
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-2.1
3.2
1.5
2.23
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
-3.2
1.3
0.8
0.97
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
5
4.6
4.8
4.73
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
1.2
0.3
1.1
1.08
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
1
0.1
0.9
0.90
Medium
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.42
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Inflation Expectations
5.3
5.7
5.8
5.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-14.7
-16.1
-10
-15.15
Low
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
2.6
1.3
0.7
-0.27
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-1.3
0.5
0.90
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
-3.3
0.2
0.2
-0.92
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-0.8
-4.6
-1.3
-0.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-12.7
-3.6
2.5
3.00
Low
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
Current Account
-165.5
-34.4
-92
-92.45
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.653
61.188
61
61.19
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:00
ZA
Business Confidence
30
31
30
31.50
Medium
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.2
-0.7
0.9
0.72
Medium
09:30
ZA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
-0.2
0.3
0.23
Medium
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
50.8
49.2
48.8
48.78
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
44.749
41.636
42.5
42.65
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
51.7
43.6
43.2
43.00
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
-9.44
15.62
-5.2
-5.54
Medium
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4.7
4
4.8
4.53
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.02
Low
08:30
ZA
Budget Balance
-54.66
19.47
-69.75
-49.05
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
3.16
4.94
4.34
4.39
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
6.58
7.65
7.05
7.12
Low
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.18
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.43
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.3
5.1
5.4
5.32
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Unemployment Rate
32.1
31.9
31.6
31.98
Medium
09:30
ZA
Unemployed Persons
7.895
7.849
8
8.05
Low
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
-0.67
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-16.1
-26
8.5
3.35
Low
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
1.4
1.1
-0.8
-0.63
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
2.7
-1
-0.7
0.03
Low
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3.4
-2.9
2
2.50
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
-4.2
2.7
-1.4
-0.98
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
0.6
6.9
4.9
3.78
Low
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
-1.7
1.2
0.5
0.90
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
0.7
2.5
2.5
1.53
Low
11:00
ZA
SACCI Business Confidence
112.1
108.6
112
111.80
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
61.188
62.518
63
63.19
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49.2
49
50
49.98
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
10:15
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.329
45.075
43
43.15
Low
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
43.6
50.9
51.3
51.10
Low
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:00
ZA
Balance of Trade
14.1
20.6
15
14.66
Medium
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:40
ZA
Budget Balance
19.47
-17.81
46
66.70
Low
06:00
ZA
M3 Money Supply YoY
7.63
5.46
5.5
5.57
Low
06:00
ZA
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.94
3.84
4.1
4.15
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:00
ZA
Interest Rate Decision
8.25
8.25
8.25
8.25
Medium
13:00
ZA
Prime Overdraft Rate
11.75
11.75
11.75
11.75
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI YoY
4
4.6
4.3
4.03
Low
09:30
ZA
PPI MoM
-0.6
-0.6
-0.3
-0.38
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY
5.1
5.5
5.2
5.12
Medium
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.53
Low
08:00
ZA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.28
Low
08:00
ZA
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:00
ZA
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM
-0.4
0.5
-0.4
-0.87
Low
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Building Permits YoY
-26.6
-22.6
-25
-30.15
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production YoY
6.8
3.6
3
1.88
Low
09:30
ZA
Gold Production YoY
-3
2.2
1.8
2.30
Low
09:30
ZA
Mining Production MoM
2.1
2
1.4
1.82
Low
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales YoY
-0.9
-2.3
-0.9
-0.17
Low
11:00
ZA
Retail Sales MoM
0.4
-1.4
-0.7
-0.53
Low
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production YoY
1.9
2.3
1.9
0.93
Low
11:00
ZA
Manufacturing Production MoM
0.8
-0.1
1
1.40
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:10
ZA
Total New Vehicle Sales
40.33
45.45
39
39.15
Low
Monday, January 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
09:00
ZA
ABSA Manufacturing PMI
50.9
48.2
47
46.80
Low
06:00
ZA
Foreign Exchange Reserves
62.518
61.721
62
62.19
Low
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
07:15
ZA
S&P Global PMI
49
50
49.7
49.68
Low
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Gold Production YoY in South Africa Rises 5.90 Percent November South Africa’s Gold Production YoY Surges Beyond Expectations Gold Production YoY measures the annual percentage change in the volume of gold mined in South Africa (ZA), reflecting shifts in mining output and economic conditions. Key facts for November 2025 include: 5.90% increase compared to last year, a sharp reversal from October’s 3.60% decline, and the data released on November 13, 2025. This strong rebound exceeded market expectations of a 4.00% drop, signaling improved operational efficiency and rising global demand. According to Morgan Stanley, “The unexpected rise in South Africa’s gold production highlights resilience in the mining sector despite tighter monetary policy.” While the South African Reserve Bank’s rate hikes have raised costs, higher gold prices and fewer labor disruptions have helped boost output. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic policy uncertainties could temper growth prospects in the near term.
November 2025’s gold production YoY growth of 5.90% sharply outpaces October’s -3.60% and the 12-month average of -3.30%. This reversal is the most pronounced since the early 2025 rebound in March (6.10%). The chart below illustrates the volatile trajectory over the past year, with production swinging between contraction and modest growth.
The recent uptick aligns with higher global gold prices, which averaged $1,950 per ounce in October-November 2025, up 7% from the previous quarter. This price support has encouraged miners to ramp up output despite tighter financial conditions.