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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Gold Production YoY climbed to -5.7% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
South Africa Gold Production YoY climbed to -5.7% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 1.6% from July's -7.3% reading. The reading missed the -4.1% consensus by 1.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.96%. Over the past 3 months, Gold Production YoY averaged -0.6%, vs 4.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 26th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-5.7
Actual
-4.1
Consensus
-7.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -5.27
Actual: -5.7
Error: +0.43
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gold Production YoY (South Africa) was reported at -5.7% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4.1% by 1.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of -7.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.56%, ranging from -7.4% to 17.1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.3%, down from the prior three at 4.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.79%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.66%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Gold Production YoY has averaged -4.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Gold Production YoY - ZA
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About Gold Production YoY — South Africa
DEFINITION
Gold Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of gold produced by a company or country over a 12-month period. This indicator is used to assess the growth or decline in gold production and can provide valuable insights into the performance and profitability of the gold industry. It is often used by investors and analysts to make informed decisions about investing in gold-related assets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -5.7 %, consensus -4.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -7.4 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 6.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | ZA | Private Sector Credit YoY | 6.23 | 7.47 | 7.5 | 6.87 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.2 | 5 | 5.7 | 5.95 | Low |
| 09:30 | ZA | Producer Price Index MoM | 1 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.75 | Low |