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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Inflation Rate MoM held to 0.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Inflation Rate MoM held to 0.7% in June 2026, released July 2026. The print came in cooler than the 0.8% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.38%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.9%, vs 0.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.7
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (South Africa) was reported at 0.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.41%, ranging from -0.1% to 1.1% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.83%, up from the prior three at 0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.25%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - ZA
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About Inflation Rate MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | ZA | Balance of Trade | 17.75 | 4.44 | 32 | 24.88 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | ZA | ABSA Manufacturing PMI | 47.3 | 49 | 51.95 | Low | |