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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM climbed to -0.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM climbed to -0.3% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 1.7% from April's -2.0% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 0.8%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.23%. Over the past 3 months, Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM averaged 0.3%, vs -0.03% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 32nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
0.5
Consensus
-2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.99 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.28
Actual: -0.3
Error: +0.57
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM (South Africa) was reported at -0.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of -2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.29%, ranging from -1.8% to 2.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.22%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.94%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM has averaged -0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.99%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM - ZA
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About Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM — South Africa
DEFINITION
The Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is a highly regarded financial metric that provides valuable insights into the current state and future direction of the economy. This indicator measures the month-over-month changes in various economic factors, such as employment, consumer spending, and business activity, to forecast potential shifts in the business cycle. It is widely used by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and anticipate market trends. With its ability to accurately predict economic fluctuations, the Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM is a crucial tool for assessing the overall health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | ZA | Balance of Trade | 17.75 | 4.44 | 32 | 24.88 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | ZA | ABSA Manufacturing PMI | 47.3 | 49 | 51.95 | Low | |