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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
South AfricaSouth Africa Producer Price Index YoY fell to 7.5% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
South Africa Producer Price Index YoY fell to 7.5% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from May's 7.8% reading. The reading missed the 8.2% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.84%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 6.3%, vs 2.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 92nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
7.5
Actual
8.2
Consensus
7.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 8.95
Actual: 7.5
Error: +1.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/ZAR | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (South Africa) was reported at 7.5% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 8.2% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.52%, ranging from 1.5% to 7.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.7%, up from the prior three at 2.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.12%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.33%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/ZAR (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - ZA
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About Producer Price Index YoY — South Africa
DEFINITION
South Africa's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 7.5% for July, missing the 8.2% estimate. This represents a decline from June's 7.8%, indicating a slight easing in producer inflation pressures. The moderation may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming monetary policy decisions. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 7.5 %, consensus 8.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 7.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/ZAR (Bearish USD, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - ZA Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | ZA | Balance of Trade | 17.75 | 4.44 | 32 | 24.88 | Medium |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | ZA | ABSA Manufacturing PMI | 47.3 | 49 | 51.95 | Low | |