Switzerland’s Consumer Confidence for December 2025 improved to -31, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database on January 12, 2026. This figure surpasses market expectations of -33 and marks a notable uptick from November’s -34 reading. The index remains negative, reflecting ongoing caution among Swiss households, but the upward trend signals a tentative recovery in consumer sentiment.

Drivers this month

• Improved labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 2.10% in December.
• Stable inflation around 1.80%, easing cost-of-living pressures compared to mid-2025 peaks.
• Moderate wage growth supporting disposable income.
• Reduced geopolitical tensions in Europe, particularly easing concerns over energy supply disruptions.

Policy pulse

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its policy rate at 1.75% in December, signaling a wait-and-see approach amid moderate inflation and steady growth. Financial conditions remain accommodative, supporting consumer spending but limiting upside risks to inflation.

Market lens

Following the release, the CHF/USD pair showed mild appreciation, reflecting improved risk sentiment. Swiss equity indices such as UBSG gained modestly, while bond yields remained stable.

Consumer Confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 55% of Switzerland’s GDP. The December 2025 reading of -31 compares favorably to the prior months: November at -34, October at -37, and September at -40. The 12-month average stands at -35, underscoring that December’s figure is the best in nearly a year.

Comparative context

• December 2025: -31
• November 2025: -34
• October 2025: -37
• September 2025: -40
• 12-month average (Jan-Dec 2025): -35
• Year-ago December 2024: -33

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The SNB’s steady policy rate and neutral stance have helped stabilize borrowing costs. Mortgage rates hovered near 2.50%, supporting housing market activity. Credit growth remains moderate, with consumer loans expanding at 3.20% year-over-year.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Switzerland’s fiscal position remains sound, with a budget surplus of 0.50% of GDP in 2025. Government stimulus measures have been modest, focusing on targeted support for innovation and green energy, rather than broad-based fiscal expansion.

Historical data from the Sigmanomics database shows that confidence tends to lead retail sales by 1-2 months. The recent uptick may therefore foreshadow stronger consumer spending in early 2026, contingent on stable external conditions.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: CHF/USD appreciated 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved risk appetite. Swiss equities, notably NESN, rallied 0.40%, while 2-year Swiss government bond yields remained flat, indicating stable monetary expectations.

Looking ahead, consumer confidence in Switzerland faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline scenario projects a gradual improvement to -28 by mid-2026, driven by steady employment and contained inflation. This scenario carries a 55% probability.

Bullish scenario (25% probability)

• Stronger wage growth and tax cuts boost disposable income.
• Geopolitical risks abate further, improving export prospects.
• SNB signals potential rate cuts in H2 2026, easing borrowing costs.
• Consumer Confidence rises above -25, supporting robust retail sales.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Renewed geopolitical tensions disrupt energy supplies.
• Inflation spikes above 3%, eroding purchasing power.
• Global economic slowdown weakens Swiss exports and labor market.
• Consumer Confidence falls back below -35, dampening spending.

Risks and uncertainties

External shocks, including potential escalation in Eastern Europe or China’s economic slowdown, remain key downside risks. Domestically, housing market corrections or fiscal tightening could also weigh on sentiment.

Switzerland’s Consumer Confidence index for December 2025 signals a cautious but meaningful improvement in household sentiment. The data from the Sigmanomics database suggests consumers are beginning to feel more secure amid stable inflation and steady labor markets. While the index remains negative, the upward trend offers hope for stronger domestic demand in 2026.

Policymakers should monitor these developments closely, balancing the need to sustain growth with vigilance against inflationary pressures. Financial markets have responded positively, reflecting a tempered optimism that could support broader economic resilience.