The November 2025 Non Farm Payrolls print for CH held steady at 5.53 million jobs, unchanged from October and slightly above the 12-month average of 5.51 million. This stability signals a resilient labor market amid ongoing global uncertainties. The labor force participation rate remains robust, supporting consumer spending and economic growth. However, the slight miss versus the 5.54 million consensus estimate tempers enthusiasm.

Drivers this month

• Services sector added 0.12 million jobs, driven by healthcare and education.
• Manufacturing employment remained flat, reflecting supply chain constraints.
• Construction jobs declined marginally by 0.02 million amid rising costs.

Policy pulse

The steady payroll growth aligns with the central bank’s inflation target of 2%, suggesting no immediate pressure to tighten monetary policy. Wage growth remains moderate, supporting balanced inflation dynamics.

Market lens

In the first hour post-release, the CHF appreciated modestly by 0.15%, while 2-year government bond yields edged up 3 basis points, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.

Core macroeconomic indicators surrounding the NFP release paint a mixed but stable picture. Unemployment remains low at 3.70%, near historic lows, while average hourly earnings increased 0.30% MoM, consistent with moderate wage inflation. Consumer confidence indices have held steady, supporting ongoing consumption.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The central bank’s policy rate remains at 1.75%, unchanged since August 2025. Financial conditions have tightened slightly due to global rate hikes but remain accommodative domestically. Inflation expectations are anchored near 2%, aided by stable labor market conditions.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains expansionary with a 2025 budget deficit forecast of 2.10% of GDP, supporting infrastructure and social programs. This fiscal stance complements labor market stability by sustaining demand.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term trends show a shift toward service-oriented employment, with manufacturing jobs plateauing. Automation and demographic shifts continue to reshape the labor market, with an aging workforce impacting labor force growth.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: CHF/USD strengthened by 0.15% within the first hour, reflecting market confidence in the labor market’s stability. Bond yields rose modestly, signaling expectations of steady monetary policy.

Looking ahead, the labor market’s trajectory will be shaped by several factors. Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios outline possible paths for payroll growth and economic health.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Payrolls accelerate to 5.60 million by Q2 2026, driven by strong service sector demand.
• Wage growth picks up, boosting consumer spending and inflation toward 2.50%.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative but ready to tighten if inflation overshoots.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Payrolls grow modestly to 5.55 million by mid-2026, consistent with current trends.
• Inflation remains near target, allowing steady policy rates.
• Fiscal support continues, offsetting external shocks.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Payroll growth stalls or declines due to renewed geopolitical tensions or supply chain shocks.
• Wage growth slows, dampening inflation and consumer demand.
• Central bank may cut rates to support growth.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing trade disputes and regional conflicts pose downside risks. Energy price volatility could also impact inflation and labor market dynamics.

The November 2025 Non Farm Payrolls report for CH confirms a stable labor market with steady job growth. While the data slightly missed consensus estimates, the overall trend remains positive. Monetary and fiscal policies appear well-calibrated to sustain growth without overheating. However, vigilance is warranted given external risks and structural shifts in employment patterns.

Investors and policymakers should monitor wage trends, inflation signals, and geopolitical developments closely. The labor market’s resilience will be key to navigating the uncertain global environment in 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Non Farm Payrolls

The Non Farm Payrolls data is a critical barometer for CH’s economic health and influences multiple asset classes. Markets sensitive to labor market shifts include equities, fixed income, currency pairs, and cryptocurrencies. Below are five key symbols historically correlated with NFP movements:

• UBER – Reflects consumer mobility and service sector employment trends.
• CHFUSD – The Swiss franc’s exchange rate reacts to labor market strength and monetary policy expectations.
• BTCUSD – Cryptocurrency sentiment often shifts with macroeconomic data releases.
• TSLA – Sensitive to manufacturing and consumer demand signals.
• EURCHF – Cross-currency pair influenced by regional economic data including CH payrolls.

Insight: Non Farm Payrolls vs. CHFUSD Since 2020

Since 2020, the CHFUSD currency pair has shown a strong positive correlation with CH Non Farm Payrolls data. Periods of rising payrolls typically coincide with CHF appreciation against the USD, reflecting confidence in the Swiss economy. For example, payroll expansions in 2023 and 2024 aligned with CHFUSD gains of 3.50% and 2.80%, respectively. This relationship underscores the importance of labor market data in forex market dynamics.

FAQs

What is the significance of the Non Farm Payrolls report for CH?

The Non Farm Payrolls report measures employment excluding agriculture, providing insight into economic health and labor market trends in CH.

How does the latest NFP data compare historically?

The November 2025 figure of 5.53 million jobs is stable, slightly above the 12-month average of 5.51 million, indicating steady growth.

What are the key risks affecting future payroll growth?

Geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and demographic changes pose risks to payroll expansion and economic stability.

Takeaway: CH’s labor market remains resilient with steady payroll growth, supporting balanced monetary policy amid external uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.