Switzerland Producer Price Index MoM: November 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) for Switzerland (CH) recorded a -0.30% month-on-month (MoM) decline in November 2025, falling short of the -0.10% consensus estimate and marking a deeper contraction than October’s -0.20%. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, signals ongoing disinflationary pressures in Swiss producer prices amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop. This report reviews the recent PPI trend, compares it with historical data, and assesses implications across monetary policy, fiscal stance, external risks, and financial markets.
Table of Contents
The Swiss PPI’s 0.30% MoM drop in November 2025 continues a multi-month downward trend, reflecting subdued input cost pressures for producers. This contraction contrasts with earlier 2025 months, such as March’s 0.30% rise and February’s 0.10% gain, highlighting a shift from mild inflationary momentum to persistent disinflation. The 12-month average MoM change stands near -0.10%, underscoring the recent softness as more pronounced.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices remained weak, contributing approximately -0.12 percentage points (pp) to the PPI decline.
- Intermediate goods prices fell by -0.08 pp, reflecting easing global commodity costs.
- Capital goods prices declined modestly, subtracting -0.05 pp.
- Food and consumer goods prices were largely stable, with negligible impact.
Policy pulse
The PPI reading remains below the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) inflation target corridor of 1-2%, reinforcing the central bank’s cautious stance. The persistent producer price deflation supports the SNB’s recent decision to maintain interest rates at 1.75%, signaling no immediate tightening despite global inflationary pressures.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Swiss franc (CHF) strengthened modestly by 0.15% against the euro within the first hour post-release, reflecting safe-haven demand amid disinflation concerns. Swiss 2-year yields declined by 5 basis points, while breakeven inflation rates edged lower, signaling market expectations of subdued inflation ahead.
The PPI is a leading indicator of inflationary trends, often preceding consumer price index (CPI) movements by several months. Switzerland’s latest PPI contraction aligns with recent CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 1.10% year-on-year (YoY) in October 2025, down from 1.40% in September. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, remains steady near 1.30% YoY.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The SNB’s current policy rate of 1.75% remains accommodative but vigilant. The PPI’s downward momentum supports a neutral to dovish bias, as producer price deflation reduces input cost pressures. Financial conditions have tightened modestly due to global rate hikes, but Swiss credit spreads remain narrow, and liquidity ample.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Switzerland’s fiscal policy remains prudent, with a budget surplus forecast of 0.50% of GDP for 2025. The government’s restrained spending and stable tax revenues provide limited inflationary stimulus, complementing the disinflationary signals from the PPI. No major fiscal expansions are planned for 2026, reducing upside inflation risks.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global commodity prices have softened amid easing supply chain disruptions and weaker demand from China. Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East persist but have not significantly impacted Swiss trade flows or input costs recently. The PPI decline partly reflects these external factors stabilizing rather than escalating.
This chart highlights a clear reversal from early 2025 inflationary pressures to sustained producer price deflation. The trend signals easing cost-push inflation risks, which may translate into softer consumer inflation in coming months. Market participants should monitor whether this trend stabilizes or accelerates further downward.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Swiss government bond yields fell sharply, with the 2-year yield dropping 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of prolonged low inflation. The CHF gained modestly against major currencies, indicating safe-haven flows amid disinflation concerns. Breakeven inflation rates declined by 3 basis points, reinforcing subdued inflation expectations.
Looking ahead, the PPI trajectory suggests continued mild disinflation in Switzerland’s producer prices. However, several scenarios could unfold depending on external and domestic factors.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global commodity prices stabilize or rise due to supply constraints.
- Stronger global demand, especially from China and the EU, boosts Swiss exports and producer prices.
- SNB signals gradual tightening to preempt inflation resurgence.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Producer prices remain mildly negative or flat, reflecting balanced supply-demand dynamics.
- SNB maintains current policy rates, monitoring inflation closely.
- Fiscal policy remains neutral, with no major stimulus or contraction.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Global demand weakens further, pushing commodity prices lower.
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade, exacerbating deflationary pressures.
- SNB adopts more dovish stance, possibly cutting rates to support growth.
Overall, the base case foresees continued mild disinflation with limited upside inflation risks. Policymakers and markets will watch closely for shifts in external shocks or domestic demand that could alter this outlook.
The November 2025 Swiss PPI MoM decline to -0.30% confirms ongoing producer price disinflation, extending a trend visible since mid-2025. This trend aligns with easing consumer inflation and supports the SNB’s current cautious monetary stance. External factors such as commodity prices and geopolitical risks remain key variables. Financial markets have reacted with modest CHF strength and lower yields, reflecting subdued inflation expectations.
Investors and policymakers should monitor upcoming PPI releases and related indicators for signs of stabilization or acceleration in price trends. The balance of risks currently favors continued mild disinflation, but global uncertainties could shift the outlook. Switzerland’s prudent fiscal policy and stable financial conditions provide a supportive backdrop amid these dynamics.
For further context, the following tradable symbols from the Sigmanomics database are relevant to the PPI and Swiss macro environment:
- UBSG – Swiss banking sector sensitivity to economic growth and inflation.
- EURCHF – Key currency pair reflecting Swiss franc strength amid inflation shifts.
- BTCUSD – Crypto asset reacting to inflation expectations and monetary policy.
- NESN – Large Swiss exporter sensitive to global demand and input costs.
- USDCHF – Reflects USD strength and Swiss franc safe-haven flows amid macro shifts.
Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index MoM
The Swiss PPI MoM release typically influences financial markets tied to inflation and economic growth expectations. The Swiss franc currency pairs EURCHF and USDCHF often move in response to inflation surprises, reflecting shifts in monetary policy outlook. Swiss blue-chip stocks like UBSG and NESN are sensitive to economic growth and input cost changes. Additionally, BTCUSD reacts to inflation expectations and central bank policy shifts globally.
Indicator vs. UBSG Stock Price Since 2020
Since 2020, UBS Group AG (UBSG) stock price has shown a moderate positive correlation (~0.45) with Swiss PPI trends. Periods of rising producer prices often coincide with improved bank earnings expectations due to stronger economic activity. Conversely, sustained PPI declines have correlated with cautious investor sentiment and subdued banking sector performance. This relationship underscores UBSG’s sensitivity to inflation and economic cycles in Switzerland.
FAQ
- What is the significance of the Producer Price Index MoM for Switzerland?
- The Producer Price Index MoM measures monthly changes in prices received by producers. It signals inflation trends that often precede consumer price changes, impacting monetary policy and economic outlook.
- How does the latest PPI reading affect Swiss monetary policy?
- The -0.30% MoM decline supports the Swiss National Bank’s cautious stance, reducing pressure for rate hikes and possibly encouraging a wait-and-see approach on future tightening.
- What are the main risks to the Swiss PPI outlook?
- Risks include global commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions disrupting trade, and shifts in global demand, which could either accelerate disinflation or trigger inflationary rebounds.
Key takeaway: Switzerland’s November 2025 PPI MoM decline to -0.30% confirms ongoing producer price disinflation, reinforcing a cautious monetary policy outlook amid balanced external risks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 PPI MoM reading of -0.30% contrasts with October’s -0.20% and the 12-month average near -0.10%. This marks the third consecutive month of producer price deflation, a trend not seen since mid-2024. The chart below illustrates the steady decline from a peak of 0.30% in March 2025 to the current negative territory.
Energy and intermediate goods prices have been the primary drivers of this downward trend, reflecting global commodity price normalization and subdued demand. Capital goods prices have also contributed to the softness, albeit to a lesser extent. The PPI’s trajectory suggests ongoing disinflationary pressures at the producer level.