Switzerland’s retail sales for December 2025 rose by 0.10% month-over-month (MoM), according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure aligns precisely with market estimates but marks a notable deceleration from November’s 0.70% increase. The comparison period, November 2025, had shown a rebound after a series of volatile months, including a 0.60% gain in October and a 0.70% rise in December 2024. The 12-month average growth rate now stands at approximately 0.15%, reflecting a generally tepid retail environment over the past year.

Drivers this month

• Modest growth in discretionary spending offset by weaker durable goods purchases.
• Holiday season effects less pronounced than in prior years, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment.
• Inflationary pressures and rising interest rates continue to constrain purchasing power.

Policy pulse

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a tightening bias, with recent rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. Retail sales growth at 0.10% remains below the SNB’s implicit target for robust domestic demand, signaling ongoing headwinds for consumption-driven inflationary pressures.

Market lens

Following the release, the Swiss franc (CHF) showed mild appreciation against the euro, reflecting investor preference for safe-haven assets amid mixed economic signals. Short-term yields on Swiss government bonds edged slightly higher, consistent with expectations of continued monetary tightening.

Retail sales are a critical gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 40% of Switzerland’s GDP. The December 2025 reading of 0.10% MoM growth, while positive, is subdued compared to historical volatility. For context, retail sales swung from -0.50% in September 2025 to a 1.60% surge in July 2025, illustrating the uneven recovery path.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The SNB’s recent policy moves have focused on combating inflation, which hovered near 3% in late 2025. Higher borrowing costs have dampened consumer credit growth, directly impacting retail sales. Financial conditions tightened further as Swiss mortgage rates rose above 2.50%, limiting discretionary spending.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Switzerland’s fiscal stance remains moderately conservative, with limited stimulus measures in place. The government’s budget surplus has narrowed slightly due to increased social spending, but no major fiscal expansions are expected in early 2026, constraining additional demand support.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global uncertainties, including supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, have indirectly affected Swiss retail through higher import costs and cautious consumer outlooks. The CHF’s safe-haven status has insulated some risks but also contributed to export sector pressures.

Drivers this month

• Lower demand for big-ticket items amid rising interest rates.
• Steady but cautious spending on essentials and services.
• Inventory adjustments by retailers ahead of year-end.

Policy pulse

The SNB’s restrictive stance is reflected in the flattening retail sales growth curve. Inflation remains above target, but consumer resilience is waning, complicating the policy outlook.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Swiss franc strengthened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year Swiss government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, signaling market anticipation of further SNB tightening.

Looking ahead, Switzerland’s retail sales trajectory faces multiple headwinds. The base case scenario projects modest growth of 0.10%–0.30% MoM in early 2026, supported by stable labor markets but constrained by higher borrowing costs. Bullish outcomes (20% probability) could emerge if inflation eases faster than expected, enabling the SNB to pause hikes and boosting consumer confidence. Conversely, a bearish scenario (30% probability) involves renewed geopolitical shocks or sharper financial tightening, potentially pushing retail sales into contraction.

Risks and Opportunities

• Upside: Easing inflation, fiscal stimulus, or improved global trade conditions.
• Downside: Prolonged inflation, rising unemployment, or CHF appreciation hurting exports.
• Neutral: Continued cautious consumer behavior amid balanced risks.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term, Swiss retail faces structural shifts including digitalization, changing demographics, and sustainability preferences. These factors may dampen traditional retail sales but open new growth avenues in e-commerce and green products.

Switzerland’s December 2025 retail sales growth of 0.10% MoM signals a cautious consumer environment amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. While the headline figure meets expectations, the slowdown from November’s 0.70% gain highlights emerging vulnerabilities. Policymakers and investors should monitor inflation trends, fiscal developments, and geopolitical risks closely, as these will shape retail momentum in 2026. The Swiss franc’s safe-haven appeal and rising interest rates remain key factors influencing consumer spending and financial market sentiment.

Overall, retail sales data underscore the delicate balance between inflation control and sustaining domestic demand. The coming months will test the resilience of Swiss consumers and the effectiveness of policy measures in navigating a complex macroeconomic landscape.

Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales MoM

Retail sales data often drive significant movements in currency, bond, and equity markets tied to consumer spending and economic growth. In Switzerland’s case, the Swiss franc (CHF) and Swiss government bonds are primary movers. Additionally, global equities sensitive to consumer demand and credit conditions may also react. Below are five tradable symbols with historical correlations to Swiss retail sales trends.

• USDSCHF – Swiss franc’s exchange rate against the USD, sensitive to retail-driven economic sentiment.
• NESN.SW – Nestlé, a major Swiss consumer goods company, whose stock performance correlates with domestic consumption trends.
• UBSG.SW – UBS Group, reflecting financial sector exposure to consumer credit and economic cycles.
• EURCHF – Euro to Swiss franc pair, influenced by cross-border trade and retail demand.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for risk sentiment that can shift with retail and economic data surprises.

FAQs

What does the December 2025 Retail Sales MoM figure indicate about Switzerland’s economy?

The 0.10% growth suggests cautious consumer spending amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties, signaling moderate economic momentum.

How does the retail sales data impact Swiss monetary policy?

Subdued retail growth supports the SNB’s cautious tightening stance but raises concerns about the balance between inflation control and demand support.

What are the main risks to Switzerland’s retail sector in early 2026?

Risks include rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflation persistence, which could dampen consumer confidence and spending.

Switzerland’s retail sales growth in December 2025 reflects a fragile recovery amid tightening financial conditions and geopolitical risks. The modest 0.10% MoM increase underscores the need for careful monitoring of inflation, fiscal policy, and external shocks. While the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, downside risks prevail, warranting vigilance from policymakers and market participants alike.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.