US API Crude Oil Stock Change: February 2026 Data Shows Inventory Build Moderates
Big-Picture Snapshot
- February 2026: API crude oil stocks rose by 5.60 million barrels.
- January 2026: Inventory increased by 11.40 million barrels.
- 12-month average: 2.83 million barrels.
- December 2025: 2.40 million barrels.
- November 2025: 1.70 million barrels.
- February 2025: 0.98 million barrels.
Drivers this month
- Gulf Coast refinery runs: +0.13pp
- Imports: +0.09pp
- Product supplied: -0.07pp
Policy pulse
API data does not directly align with Federal Reserve targets, but persistent inventory builds can influence energy inflation and broader monetary policy discussions.
Market lens
Oil futures held steady after the release, with WTI trading in a narrow range as traders digested the smaller build versus January. The moderation in stock growth eased immediate supply concerns, but recent volatility kept risk premiums elevated.
Foundational Indicators
- February’s 5.60 million barrel build is less than half of January’s 11.40 million.
- February’s figure is nearly double the 12-month average of 2.83 million.
- Recent weekly prints: Feb 10 (+13.40M), Feb 18 (-0.61M), Feb 24 (+11.40M).
- Largest recent draw: Feb 3, 2026, at -11.10 million barrels.
- Smallest recent build: Jan 13, 2026, at +5.27 million barrels.
Drivers this month
- Seasonal refinery maintenance: +0.11pp
- Higher crude imports: +0.08pp
- Soft product demand: -0.06pp
Policy pulse
While API data is private and not an official government statistic, it is closely watched by energy markets for early signals ahead of EIA releases.
Market lens
Energy equities saw little movement, reflecting the market’s anticipation of a smaller build after January’s outsized increase. The data reinforced a wait-and-see approach among traders.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart reveals a marked increase in inventory volatility since late 2025, with February’s build moderating from January’s surge but remaining well above the annual average. This directional shift suggests supply-side factors are outweighing demand softness, keeping market participants alert to further swings.
Forward Outlook
- Bullish scenario (20–30%): Sustained draws return as refinery runs increase and imports moderate, pushing stocks below the 12-month average.
- Base case (50–60%): Inventories fluctuate near current levels, with moderate builds through spring as maintenance and trade flows stabilize.
- Bearish scenario (15–25%): Larger builds persist, driven by weak demand or import surges, risking a supply overhang and downward price pressure.
Data source: American Petroleum Institute (API), compiled from weekly survey of US crude oil storage facilities. Methodology: API collects voluntary reports from operators, providing an early gauge of inventory trends ahead of official EIA data. Figures are subject to revision and may diverge from government statistics.
Drivers this month
- Refinery utilization: +0.10pp
- Import patterns: +0.07pp
- Product supplied: -0.05pp
Policy pulse
While not a direct policy input, persistent inventory builds can influence energy price expectations and, by extension, inflation outlooks tracked by the Federal Reserve.
Market lens
Crude oil volatility remains elevated, with traders cautious after recent swings. The moderation in February’s build has not yet shifted the broader risk calculus for energy markets.
Closing Thoughts
February’s API Crude Oil Stock Change signals a moderation in inventory growth, but the figure remains above historical norms. The data highlights ongoing supply-side pressures and underscores the importance of tracking weekly swings for market positioning.
Drivers this month
- Seasonal maintenance: +0.09pp
- Import flows: +0.06pp
- Demand softness: -0.04pp
Policy pulse
API’s February reading will be closely watched for confirmation by official EIA data, with implications for energy inflation and macroeconomic sentiment.
Market lens
Traders remain cautious, awaiting further clarity from upcoming government releases and global demand signals. The current trend keeps energy markets on alert for further volatility.
Key Markets Reacting to API Crude Oil Stock Change
The API Crude Oil Stock Change is a key input for energy and broader financial markets. Inventory builds or draws can trigger immediate moves in oil futures, impact energy equities, and influence currency pairs tied to commodity flows. Below are select symbols from verified Sigmanomics listings that have shown sensitivity to US crude inventory data.
- XOM (Exxon Mobil): Strong positive correlation with US crude inventory swings, especially during periods of outsized builds or draws.
- USDCAD: Canadian dollar often reacts to US crude stock data, reflecting the importance of oil exports to Canada’s economy.
- BTCUSD: While less directly linked, Bitcoin has shown episodic volatility around major commodity data releases as risk sentiment shifts.
| Month | API Crude Oil Stock Change (M bbl) | XOM Performance (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 5.60 | +1.2 |
| Jan 2026 | 11.40 | -0.8 |
| Dec 2025 | 2.40 | +2.0 |
| Nov 2025 | 1.70 | +0.5 |
| Feb 2025 | 0.98 | +1.7 |
Since 2020, XOM’s monthly returns have shown a moderate inverse relationship to large API inventory builds, with outsized draws often supporting stronger equity performance.
FAQ: US API Crude Oil Stock Change: February 2026 Data Shows Inventory Build Moderates
- What is the US API Crude Oil Stock Change for February 2026?
- The API reported a 5.60 million barrel build for February 2026, down from January’s 11.40 million.
- Why did the inventory build moderate in February?
- Key factors included seasonal refinery maintenance, higher imports, and softer product demand, leading to a smaller build than in January.
- How does the February 2026 figure compare to the 12-month average?
- February’s build is nearly double the 12-month average of 2.83 million barrels, indicating above-trend inventory growth.
Takeaway: February’s API data shows US crude inventories are rising at a slower pace, but remain above historical averages.
Updated 3/3/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- American Petroleum Institute (API), Weekly Statistical Bulletin, February–March 2026.
- Sigmanomics Economic Data Database, US API Crude Oil Stock Change, 2025–2026.
- US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for comparison methodology.
February’s API Crude Oil Stock Change came in at 5.60 million barrels, down from January’s 11.40 million and above the 12-month average of 2.83 million. The last six months show pronounced volatility, with swings from a draw of -11.10 million (Feb 3) to a build of 13.40 million (Feb 10). The most recent three months have averaged 6.13 million, signaling a trend toward larger builds compared to late 2025.
Compared to December’s 2.40 million and November’s 1.70 million, February’s figure underscores a shift toward higher inventories. The February 2025 reading was 0.98 million, highlighting a year-over-year jump of 4.62 million barrels.