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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS API Crude Oil Stock Change fell to -9.12 in June 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased June 2026
US API Crude Oil Stock Change fell to -9.12 in June 2026, down 2.37 from May's -6.75 reading. The reading missed the -3.4 consensus by 5.72. API Crude Oil Stock Change has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, API Crude Oil Stock Change averaged 0.03, vs 1.17 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-9.119
Actual
-3.4
Consensus
-6.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.52
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -2.32
Actual: -9.12
Error: +6.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
API Crude Oil Stock Change (United States) was reported at -9.12 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -3.40 by 5.72. The reading fell from the previous value of -6.75. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.07, ranging from -11.10 to 19.10 across 45 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.22, down from the prior three at -0.34. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.19) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.07). In June readings over the past 3 years, API Crude Oil Stock Change has averaged -2.73.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.52.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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API Crude Oil Stock Change - US
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About API Crude Oil Stock Change — United States
DEFINITION
The API Crude Oil Stock Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of crude oil held in storage by the American Petroleum Institute (API). This data provides valuable insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market and can impact the price of crude oil. Investors and analysts closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about their investments in the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -9.119 M, consensus -3.4 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -6.75 M. Before that (May 2026): -2.8 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.