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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS API Crude Oil Stock Change climbed to -0.3M in September 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased September 2026
US API Crude Oil Stock Change climbed to -0.3M in September 2026, up 2.3M from August's -2.6M reading. The print exceeded the -1.3M consensus by 1M. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.4M. Over the past 3 months, API Crude Oil Stock Change averaged -0.4M, vs -0.62M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 53rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
-1.3
Consensus
-2.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.95 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.27
Actual: -0.3
Error: +0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
API Crude Oil Stock Change (United States) was reported at -0.30 million in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1.30 million by 1.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.60 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.18, ranging from -11.10 to 13.40 across 45 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43, down from the prior three at 2.83. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.58) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.80). In September readings over the past 3 years, API Crude Oil Stock Change has averaged -2.17.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.95.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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API Crude Oil Stock Change - US
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About API Crude Oil Stock Change — United States
DEFINITION
The API Crude Oil Stock Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of crude oil held in storage by the American Petroleum Institute (API). This data provides valuable insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market and can impact the price of crude oil. Investors and analysts closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about their investments in the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.3 M, consensus -1.3 M. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -2.6 M. Before that (Sep 2026): -2.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.40) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |