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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS API Crude Oil Stock Change climbed to -0.06 in July 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased July 2026
US API Crude Oil Stock Change climbed to -0.06 in July 2026, up 0.34 from June's -0.4 reading. The print exceeded the -2.7 consensus by 2.64. API Crude Oil Stock Change has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, API Crude Oil Stock Change averaged -4.98, vs 4.02 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 61st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.056
Actual
-2.7
Consensus
-0.399
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.95
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -4.11
Actual: -0.06
Error: -4.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
API Crude Oil Stock Change (United States) was reported at -0.06 in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -2.70 by 2.64. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.53, ranging from -11.10 to 13.40 across 46 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.18, up from the prior three at -6.07. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.28) is comparable than the prior year (σ 5.03). In July readings over the past 3 years, API Crude Oil Stock Change has averaged 0.26.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.95.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Jul 17) and Building Permits (Jul 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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API Crude Oil Stock Change - US
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About API Crude Oil Stock Change — United States
DEFINITION
The API Crude Oil Stock Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of crude oil held in storage by the American Petroleum Institute (API). This data provides valuable insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market and can impact the price of crude oil. Investors and analysts closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about their investments in the energy sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.056 M, consensus -2.7 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.399 M. Before that (Jun 2026): -6.072 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |