XOM Stock Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis
XOM
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View All Forecasts →Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
6 of 7 models in band
± 5.24% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
XOM's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±3.4% over 7 days, widening to ±8.0% over 28. Options screen fair at 7D and 14D while 28D screens cheap (VRP ≈ 0.96×).
Premium grade: 2026-11-05 05:09 UTC
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 70% (80 forecast-days · n_eff=8 independent windows) · CI 37–90% · as of 4 Nov 2026 · n_eff as of 1 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 80 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (8 independent windows), XOM's expected-range band contained price 70% of the time (95% CI 37–90%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 5, 2026, XOM is trading at 169.44. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this stock generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) is a publicly traded stock covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The XOM stock closed at 169.44 on November 4, 2026, reflecting a decline of 4.54% from the previous close of 177.50. XOM is listed on the IEX.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the stock has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 4.57%, ranging between 159.27 and 188.50. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 177.69. The 14-day RSI stands at 42.7, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.73%, reflecting typical price variability for this stock. Over the past 52 weeks, XOM traded between 112.51 (Nov 4, 2025) and 188.50 (Oct 30, 2026); the current price sits 10.1% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 1.73% runs elevated for this stock, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. XOM is currently trading 4.64% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 42.7, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Total Vehicle Sales (US) (r=+0.83), ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (US) (r=+0.75), Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (US) (r=+0.75), BoE Consumer Credit (US) (r=+0.72)
Inversely correlated: Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (US) (r=-0.81), PPI Final Demand Ex Food Energy Trade (US) (r=-0.76), Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (US) (r=-0.75), Producer Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.71)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.