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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustriaAustria Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Austria Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026, down 0.4% from June's 0.0% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.18%, vs 0.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.3
Actual: 0
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Austria) was reported at -0.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.24%, ranging from -0.8% to 1.1% across 21 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.45%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.34%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.01%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM - AT
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About Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM — Austria
DEFINITION
The Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the overall price level of goods and services in a country over a one-month period. It takes into account the prices of a wide range of consumer goods and services, providing a comprehensive view of inflation trends. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to monitor and analyze the impact of inflation on the economy and make informed decisions. A higher Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM indicates an increase in prices, while a lower rate suggests a decrease in inflation.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AT Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | AT | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.75 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.90 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.3 | -0.10 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.00 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | AT | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.95 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | Harmonised Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.05 | Low |
| 07:00 | AT | Harmonised Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.00 | Low |