Nikkei 225 (^N225) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis
^N225
indicesCurrent Price
Upcoming Forecasts
View All Forecasts →Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
4 of 7 models in band
± 5.08% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent near-term trend; possible regime shift if 1W turns.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
loading premium read…
Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 77.1% (83 forecast-days · n_eff=8 independent windows) · CI 43–94% · as of 7 Nov 2026 · n_eff as of 8 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 83 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (8 independent windows), ^N225's expected-range band contained price 77.1% of the time (95% CI 43–94%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 8, 2026, ^N225 is trading at 57434.77. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
The Nikkei 225 (^N225) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^N225 index closed at 57,434.77 on November 6, 2026, reflecting a decline of 5.96% from the previous close of 61,077.90.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a strong downtrend with a decline of 12.33%, ranging between 56,745.81 and 70,793.29. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 64,200.63. The 14-day RSI stands at 25.9, in oversold territory.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.97%, reflecting typical price variability for this index. Over the past 52 weeks, ^N225 traded between 48,235.30 (Nov 19, 2025) and 72,831.73 (Jun 22, 2026); the current price sits 21.1% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 1.97% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^N225 is currently trading 10.54% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 25.9, currently in oversold territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Adjusted Trade Balance (JP) (r=+0.86), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (JP) (r=+0.82), 10-Year JGB Auction (JP) (r=+0.78)
Inversely correlated: GDP Growth Rate YoY (HK) (r=-0.71), GDP Private Consumption QoQ (JP) (r=-0.69), Interest Rate Decision (TH) (r=-0.68), Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY (JP) (r=-0.68), Industrial Production YoY (TW) (r=-0.67)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.Related Pairs
Correlated Economic Indicators
Primary economy: Japan economic indicators
